Gary Kubiak needs to take the keys away from Peyton Manning. The Broncos sold the Ferrari. They bought a Mack Truck.
In his first real test as coach of the Broncos, Kubiak must tell his Hall of Fame quarterback who’s the boss around here. This is Kubiak’s offense. If Denver is going to make a serious run at the Super Bowl, the team must run more and get truly serious about depending on Manning less.
It’s time for Kubiak to lay down the law: Never trust Manning to throw the football more than 40 times in a game, starting in a crucial AFC West showdown Thursday night at Kansas City. If Manning attempts more than 40 passes against the Chiefs, Denver is in trouble.
During the season-opening victory against Baltimore, when a stout defense saved Manning’s bacon, Denver attempted 44 passes, including the four times Manning was sacked. The Broncos ran it only 25 times.
“We got out of whack,” said Kubiak, who regretted not having more offensive balance.
Well, don’t let it happen again. It seems to me too much of the play-calling has been in deference to Manning’s ego rather than based on what’s best for the Broncos.
At age 39, Manning no longer can be counted on to perform like a Hall of Fame quarterback on a consistent basis. Yes, he will produce great games. But that’s not the way to bet. As every old guy knows, great days are fewer and farther between with each passing year.
Manning, however, can be a winning quarterback. And here’s what might shock you: At this stage in his career, the less Manning throws in a game, the better he plays.
That’s not conjecture. It’s a fact. We did the math:
During the past 10 games when the erosion of Manning’s skills has become evident, dating to a 41-17 victory over Oakland on Nov. 9, 2014, the Broncos have been much more efficient, productive and successful on offense the less they have relied on their veteran quarterback.
Manning attempted more than 40 passes in five of the 10 games, and fewer than 40 passes in five of 10 games. The contrast in success for the Broncos between a Manning-centric game plan or in game-manager mode has been striking.
In the five games Manning has dropped back to pass at least 40 times, the Broncos have gained 1,359 net yards on 238 pass plays. Manning has been sacked 10 times in those five games, which is hazardous to the health of an aging quarterback. The net adjusted average per pass for Manning has been an inefficient 5.7 yards.
Here’s the bottom line: In the last five games Manning has thrown at least 40 passes, the record of the Broncos is 2-3, while the team averaged 21.6 points per game.
In stark contrast, during the five most recent games Manning has dropped back to pass fewer than 40 times, the Broncos have gained 1,102 yards through the air on 130 pass plays. Manning has endured only four sacks in those four games, and as Kubiak insists, his No. 1 job is to keep his veteran QB safe in the pocket. The net average per pass play for Manning has been a remarkably efficient 8.5 yards.
And for those who say the NFL is all about scoreboard: In the last five games Manning has thrown fewer than 40 passes, the record of the Broncos is 5-0, while the team has averaged 32.2 points per game.
Of course, it won’t be possible for Kubiak to keep Manning under 40 pass plays in each and every game during 2015. But it should be the goal.
Denver was at its most imposing as an offense against the Ravens when Manning and his teammates were backed up to their 4-yard line in the fourth quarter, clinging to a three-point lead.
What followed was a methodical 17-play, 81-yard drive that set up a field goal and made any thought of a Baltimore upset much more difficult. The Broncos exerted muscle, running the football 11 times for 43 yards. Manning attempted only five passes but efficiently gained 38 yards. That’s balance. And that’s the offensive mission statement Denver needs to adopt.
“We’re still learning things about ourselves,” Manning said. “We’re trying to improve a little each week.”
At this stage in his career, less is more for Manning.
For a proud Hall of Fame quarterback, it’s a tough lesson to master.
Mark Kiszla: mkiszla@denverpost.com or
