Colorado employers added 12,700 fewer jobs than initially estimated in the first quarter, with hospitality, mining and construction missing the mark the most, according to an update Wednesday from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment.
Among the report’s biggest surprises: Employers in Weld and Mesa counties were cutting instead of adding jobs in the first quarter.
Nonfarm payroll job growth in Colorado, initially pegged at 2.9 percent, now looks like it is running closer to 2.4 percent after the revisions. That isn’t a poor showing, but it is the slowest pace for the state since 2012 and is down from 2015’s average job growth rate of 3.1 percent.
“The trend in growth has been slowing,” said Ryan Gedney, a senior economist with the labor department.
Each month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys 146,000 employers to estimate the number of people they employ in what is known as the official services. Each quarter, employers pay unemployment insurance, listing the actual number of workers on the payroll. Employment counts are revised accordingly.
As of March, Colorado mining and logging firms had 6.9 percent fewer employees than first estimated, the largest percentage miss of any sector. The official series estimated one out of five positions in that hard-hit sector had gone away in the 12 months through March. The reality is that closer to 1-of-4 has evaporated.
But leisure and hospitality, where payroll counts were off by 11,500, or 3.5 percent, did the most to put the first-quarter counts askew.
“It is still growing at a healthy 4 percent, but the official series had it at 7 percent,” Gedney said of the sector most linked to tourism.
Construction, manufacturing and information were other sectors not coming through on their monthly estimates as of March. On the other side, job growth came in stronger than expected in trade, transportation and utilities; financial activities; and government.
Among metropolitan areas, Boulder and Colorado Springs are expected to see the biggest upward revisions in employment counts, while Pueblo, Greeley and Grand Junction face the biggest downward revisions.
Boulder’s annual job growth rate, estimated at 1.9 percent in March, actually tracked closer to 3.4 percent, proving that area wasn’t a laggard but a leader. Colorado Springs is running 3.3 percent instead of 2.9 percent and metro Denver, at 3 percent, came close to hitting the monthly mark of 3.1 percent.
Employers in Grand Junction and Greeley, initially thought to be adding jobs in the early part of the year, were actually shedding them, the revisions show. Greeley, which includes all of Weld County, suffered a 2.7 percent drop in payroll counts instead of the 0.1 percent gain estimated as of March.
Some of the gap between the monthly reports and quarterly census reflects statistical issues, like anomalies in how the bureau extrapolates its numbers. But big revisions can also reflect shifts in the larger economy.
In the first three quarters of 2015, revisions took Colorado payroll counts higher. But in the fourth quarter, , and the overcounting has continued into 2016.
Gedney said he would be more worried if the number of workers in the state filing for unemployment benefits surged, but filings have continued to drop.
The revisions seem to reconcile questioned raised in the monthly reports, like why was Boulder underperforming — it isn’t. And how has Weld County kept payroll counts steady despite the devastating cuts in oil and gas — it hasn’t.
