Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell seems to have settled on Jeff Sessions as the answer — perhaps the only answer — for saving a GOP Senate seat in Alabama.
And he has very good reason to believe that.
First, here’s what McConnell, R-Ky., told The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council about Sessions on Tuesday (thanks to CNN’s Jake Tapper’s transcription compiled from a series of tweets):
“It appears as if the only option would be a write-in, and that’s very seldom successful, although we’ve had an example of it in 2010. Lisa Murkowski from Alaska lost the primary, ran a write-in campaign in the general election and actually won. I think the last person to do that was Strom Thurmond in the ’50s. So, why did she win? She was totally well-known and extremely popular. And the name being the most often discussed may not be available, but the Alabamian who would fit that standard would be the attorney general, who is totally well-known and extremely popular in Alabama. That obviously would be a big move for him and for the president. … I’m confident this is an issue they’re discussing in great detail.”
McConnell isn’t quite saying it — perhaps not wanting to apply too much pressure or foreclose other options — but he’s suggesting that Sessions may be the only candidate who could wage a write-in campaign and win. Here’s why I think that’s right:
(And to be clear: All this assumes Moore is no longer a candidate — that he either drops out or has his nomination withdrawn by the state party.)
First of all, as McConnell noted, write-in campaigns require very well-known candidates to run, given people need to be able to recall their names easily. What better solution than a guy who has been on their Senate ballots in Alabama four times and has national status after having been U.S. attorney general for the past 10 months? Other options mentioned — including Rep. Mo Brooks and appointed Sen. Luther Strange, who both lost the GOP nomination to Moore — can’t compete on that front. Strange served statewide as attorney general, but he’s not the known quantity to Alabama voters that Sessions is.
But to me, that’s not even the biggest consideration. I think the bigger factor is the fact that Moore’s name will remain on the ballot no matter what. Ballots have been printed, and absentee ballots were sent out long ago. That means whoever the write-in candidate would be is already bleeding GOP votes to Moore.
“I think it’s very important for your viewers to know that our people have been voting since Oct. 18,” Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill told Fox News on Tuesday night.
Merrill also added something important, saying that even if Moore’s nomination were withdrawn, “if he gets the most votes as a plurality winner on Dec. 12, then our election will be null and void.”
Yep, there’s the Alabama secretary of state suggesting that Moore could still win the most votes in the special election even if he is not officially a candidate. In other words, there could be a huge number of Alabamians who still vote for Moore, either because they don’t know he’s not a candidate or — and this is the key here — as a protest vote.
Moore’s base of support is nothing if not passionate and devoted. Moore has been telling them for days that he is being persecuted and has been telling them for months that McConnell and the GOP establishment hate his guts. Even if he’s out of the race — and especially if he doesn’t drop out of his own volition — there is liable to be a significant protest vote for his candidacy.
Even setting name ID aside, Sessions is the best answer to foreclose a large protest vote. He’s got huge conservative bona fides as one of the most far-right GOP senators in recent years, especially on issues like immigration where he often gave even his GOP colleagues heartburn.
Were Strange the write-in candidate, it’s not difficult to see a big protest vote for Moore. Voters already had that choice in the primary runoff, after all, and they chose Moore. With Brooks, he’s certainly very conservative, but he’s less well-known to the six-sevenths of the state he doesn’t represent in the House.
About the only matchup in which I can see potential Moore protest voters deciding the write-in option is more attractive is if it’s Sessions, the guy who they know is willing to rock the boat in D.C. and gives the liberals fits.
From there, the question is whether Moore is withdrawn from the race and whether Sessions wants to do it. He would basically be deciding that running an uncertain write-in campaign for Senate is worth giving up his position as U.S. attorney general. As of early this week, those close to Sessions were skeptical he’d do it.
If he does need convincing, McConnell set about starting that process Tuesday. And making a credible argument that only Sessions could save the seat for Republicans could be a compelling argument.
Aaron Blake is senior political reporter for The Washington Post’s blog. Follow him on Twitter:
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