The Nuggets might be eliminated from the NBA playoffs, but the league is still bustling between a thrilling start to the Western Conference Finals and the usual anticipation for next year. Here are five thoughts on what’s happening around the league.
Is the No. 1 seed overrated? Yes and no
Everybody knows how unprecedented it is that seven different teams have won the last seven NBA Finals. But here’s an interesting, less-discussed subplot of the league’s parity era: With Detroit’s Game 7 loss to the Cavs last weekend, a No. 1 seed has been eliminated before the conference finals in seven straight years (and eight of the last nine). That’s quite a surprising streak in a league that’s generally considered the least upset-prone of the major American sports.
- 2026: Pistons (60-22) lost 4-3 to No. 4 Cavaliers in Round 2
- 2025: Cavaliers (64-18) lost 4-1 to No. 4 Pacers in Round 2
- 2024:ճܲԻ (57-25) lost 4-2 to No. 5 Mavericks in Round 2
- 2023: Bucks (58-24) lost 4-1 to No. 8 Heat in Round 1
- 2022: Suns (64-18) lost 4-3 to No. 4 Mavericks in Round 2
- 2021: 76ers (49-23) lost 4-3 to No. 5 Hawks in Round 2
- 2020: Bucks (56-17) lost 4-1 to No. 5 Heat in Round 2
- 2018: Raptors (59-23) lost 4-0 to No. 4 Cavaliers in Round 2
It’s enough to at least raise the question of whether seeding is overrated.
The answer to that question remains a definitive no.
The surviving No. 1 seed has still won the last three championships, sustaining a trend that spans the history of the NBA: The best team usually wins. Upsets may be a little more prevalent, but OKC, Boston and . The regular season has remained a pretty good indicator of which team is going to hoist the Larry O’Brien.
A No. 1 seed has won roughly two-thirds of all championships. Only eight No. 3 seeds have won, and only two teams seeded lower than that have pulled it off — the 1969 Celtics (No. 4) and 1995 Rockets (No. 6). The third-place Nuggets felt like they had a shot as they entered the playoffs this year, but they would have been an anomaly.
Pour one out for the Pacers
The closest any recent sub-three has gotten to the title was last June, of course, when Indiana’s magical run was cut tragically short in Game 7 of the Finals. Tyrese Haliburton’s torn Achilles tendon is a “what if” for all eternity. The Pacers deserved some good karma. In the middle of a lost season, they took one of the gutsiest risks you’ll see in the NBA — trading their 2026 first-round pick, top-four protected, to the Clippers for center Ivica Zubac.
The logic behind it made sense: The four headliners of this draft class could fit Indiana’s roster and immediately contribute to a win-now cause. Fifth or lower, the Pacers were willing to lose for a veteran of Zubac’s stature.
The game of chance was nonetheless nerve-racking. After finishing with the league’s second-worst record, the Pacers entered the draft lottery with a 52% chance to keep their pick and a 48% chance to forfeit it to Los Angeles. The lowest it could fall was sixth. It was a coin toss.
If any team in the NBA deserved to win a coin toss, it was them.
They walked away empty-handed. The pick fell to No. 5, to a Clippers team in the middle of a salary cap circumvention scandal, rubbing salt on the wound.
Indiana, with AJ Dybantsa, Caleb Wilson, or Cameron Boozer coming off the bench, would have been a sight to behold. Instead, the book is closed on one of the most cursed years any franchise has ever endured. (We haven’t even mentioned Haliburton’s case of shingles.) If the Pacers want a second chance on the biggest stage, they’ll have to make their own luck.
East could be a gauntlet in ’26-27
A perennial laughingstock compared to the Western Conference, the East should be fun and fierce next season. Indiana’s anticipated return to form (even without a lottery pick) adds a proven title contender to the mix. Boston, New York, Detroit and Cleveland shouldn’t be any less dangerous on paper, roster changes pending.
Orlando was a team considered talented enough to make a deep run this season, and now Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner will have a new coach to offer a fresh perspective on how they can optimize that talent. Philly’s health is fickle, but the upside is evident after a first-round upset of Boston. Atlanta and Toronto are playoff teams on the rise, with the trade resources to power up. Then there’s Charlotte, one of the most compelling teams of all — another ascending core with reason to believe it can win the conference after finishing 2025-26 on a 33-15 surge.
Giannis Antetokounmpo looms over the entire landscape. His exit from Milwaukee represents a paradigm shift. Wherever he gets traded in the next month will leap ahead as a contender. Any number of East hopefuls could go after him.
This all leaves a feeling that the Pistons were a little too content to treat 2025-26 as a house-money year. They handled the trade deadline the same way Oklahoma City did in 2024 — by doing nothing to address obvious holes in a first-place roster. They preferred to see things through in their current form, gain playoff experience and evaluate next steps afterward. The Thunder had so much premier talent that GM Sam Presti needed only to supplement his stars in the summer of 2024. Detroit appears farther from a championship, more in need of substantial upgrades — not just better shooting around Cade Cunningham, but a secondary star capable of creating off the dribble.
Those needs were already apparent in February, when a more manageable path through the East lay ahead. By waiting, the Pistons might not have helped themselves. What if the house money year turns out to be their best opportunity?
Where do the Timberwolves go from here?
The West should remain the more top-heavy conference, at least. on Monday night was proof of that. Twenty-eight general managers will wake up in a cold sweat at some point this summer, jolted out of a nightmare about that game.
Victor Wembanyama, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the juggernauts surrounding them aren’t going anywhere.
Even if Presti has to make sacrifices to the second apron, his roster is such a cornucopia of talent that it’s difficult to imagine OKC doing anything except winning 60 games over and over again. Meanwhile, Wembanyama has broken basketball.
It’s a league-wide existential crisis. But it has to be more dramatic than the other superstar-laden teams in the West. Teams with a player good enough to incentivize aggressive roster moves that are nonetheless unlikely to close the gap. Teams like the Nuggets. And the team that has their number.
For as much as they’ve crossed paths and evolved into a box-office matchup, Minnesota and Denver seem to form a pretty clear secondary tier in the conference right now. The Wolves pushed San Antonio to six, but they went out of the playoffs with a whimper for the third consecutive year of Anthony Edwards’ prime. They’ve trailed by 30 points in each of their last three elimination games.
Their superstar is much younger than Denver’s, but he’s stuck in the middle of SGA and Wemby’s generations. The Nuggets at least did themselves a favor by capturing a title before this Thunder-Spurs thing became a problem.
Tim Connelly is no stranger to blockbuster trades, and it feels like there’s another one coming this offseason. The Timberwolves need a pure point guard to spare Edwards after he spent a year playing out of position. They also need a frontcourt reboot — the Julius Randle-Rudy Gobert combo may have reached its ceiling already. New York is emerging as a potential winner in the KAT trade. It doesn’t help that Donte DiVincenzo is likely out for most of next season.
This all gets at a central theme: the summer trade market could be busy and messy, with many good teams desperately grasping for greatness. Wembanyama is going to prompt some intriguing, possibly rash, decisions.
A trendy pick to skyrocket in the West
For a few years now, there’s been at least one young Western Conference team that catapults up the standings from the lottery more dramatically than anyone predicts. This season, it was the Spurs with a 28-win increase from 13th place to second. The year before, it was the Rockets going from 11th to second. In 2023-24, the Thunder jumped from 10th to first.
Everyone has eyes on Charlotte in the East. In the West, Utah wants to be that team next season. The Jazz loaded up at the trade deadline by acquiring Jaren Jackson Jr., waited out one last year of tanking and got rewarded with the No. 2 overall pick. They could have an opening day lineup of Keyonte George, Darryn Peterson (or another top prospect), Lauri Markkanen, JJJ and Walker Kessler, with Ace Bailey off the bench. They have the assets to make other aggressive moves.
If anyone is going to steal a top-six seed in the West from one of this year’s contenders, Utah will be a popular pick to be that team. Bad news for Denver: It’s yet another divisional opponent trying to win, along with OKC, Minnesota and the lurking Blazers. Life is not getting easier for Nikola Jokic and company.
