When Nuggets president Josh Kroenke declared that “everything is on the table” this offseason except for a Nikola Jokic trade, he was probably intending to be vague, not wanting to publicly commit to any one course of action.
But the remark was nonetheless revealing — specifically, the absence of a sentence clause offering Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon the same protection as Jokic.
The 31-year-old Serbian center is due a contract extension this summer, and all indications are that he plans to sign it. As for Denver’s other two franchise cornerstones, the future is clouded by Kroenke’s comment. Should it be taken seriously? Or was it just an easy platitude, meant to convey the urgency of the situation after a disappointing first-round playoff loss? After all, Kroenke also hinted that “running it back” with the remaining core of Denver’s 2023 championship team is a possibility.
In order to peel back the layers and truly understand how the Nuggets might proceed from here, you have to follow the money. That will dictate team officials’ offseason decisions as much as — if not more than — the fact that the Nuggets fell flat in the playoffs. The Post has already reported that at least one key player is almost guaranteed to be sacrificed this summer. As we begin exploring Denver’s trade possibilities and free-agent candidates over the next few weeks, we must start with what they have to offer — and why not one but multiple starter-level players could feasibly be gone by the time the dust settles on this offseason.
A mock offseason … minus the trades
The easiest way to illustrate the Nuggets’ dilemma is to first predict every roster decision they’re going to make, minus trades. Basically, we’re gaming out a “mock offseason” but leaving it incomplete. That should give us a rough estimate of their 2026-27 payroll and how much salary they’ll have to dump via a trade to avoid the repeater tax.
Here are the projected NBA tax thresholds for next season to keep in mind:
- Luxury tax: $201 million
- First apron: $209 million
- Second apron: $222 million
At this exact moment, the Nuggets have 10 roster spots filled and $213.8 million on the books. Even in the most aggressive version of this offseason imaginable, in which they decide to spend lavishly, they’re probably going to treat that second-apron number as a hard cap. Most NBA owners do. Alternatively, the Kroenkes might want to get under the luxury tax or at least within range of it — enough to preserve the option to shed more salary at the 2027 trade deadline (like they did this past season). That means we’re eyeing $201 million as the goal while predicting these moves. We have to locate the easiest ways to snip payroll.
Start with backup center Jonas Valanciunas, who has a non-guaranteed salary of $10 million. The Nuggets have already agreed to guarantee him $2 million of that. But it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that he won’t be in Denver next season. He might not be in the NBA at all. One major Euro League team already tried to lure him away last summer, and he’s reportedly expected to have more overseas suitors this year. Leaving the NBA behind would allow him to be closer to home (Lithuania) and get more playing time as he enters the late stages of his career.
The exit strategy here could work in one of three ways. The Nuggets could trade him to a team that’s willing to take on $2 million in dead cap. But that would probably cost them a second-round pick, and they have only three of those to spend with other salary-shedding moves to anticipate. Another option is to waive Valanciunas outright and eat the $2 million on the 2026-27 cap sheet. Or they could “waive and stretch” him, which would basically disperse his guaranteed salary over three seasons. The Nuggets would incur a modest $666,667 dead cap hit next season, still saving them $9.3 million. It seems like the most reasonable route to predict, partially because ownership shouldn’t be as worried about paying the tax in the last two seasons of stretched salary if Denver successfully ducks the repeater next year.
Another easy penny-pinching move is to pick up Jalen Pickett’s fourth-year team option. His $2.41 million salary is about $40,000 cheaper than the projected veteran minimum cap hit. Cha-ching.
Another is to keep the No. 26 pick in the draft and sign that player to a standard contract. The rookie salary scale for the 26th pick is projected to start around $3.1 million. That’s a cheap roster spot and an opportunity to fill a positional hole of Denver’s choosing, lower down on the depth chart.
The Nuggets have two restricted free agents in Peyton Watson and Spencer Jones. Jones came close but didn’t quite meet the “starter criteria” for RFAs, meaning his qualifying offer is the standard minimum instead of $5.9 million. Watson’s qualifying offer is $6.5 million, but he’ll get paid much more than that, whether it’s from Denver or someone else. It should be noted that if the Nuggets want to scare away other suitors (Los Angeles, Brooklyn, Chicago), they’ll probably want to telegraph their intent and ability to match offer sheets in advance. They can only do that by agreeing to a significant salary-shedding trade and clearing their books before free agency — a brutal tightrope to walk with no guarantee that Watson doesn’t still get a lucrative offer regardless. Point being: Our order of operations in this simulation is not meant to be accurate.
Watson checks a lot of boxes for the Nuggets after they felt like they were at a loss for secondary ball-handling and athleticism against Minnesota. Let’s just say restricted free agency works out perfectly, with Jones taking his qualifying offer and Watson getting squeezed a bit in negotiations. We’ll pencil him in for an ascending deal that starts at $20 million next season and has an average annual value between that and $25 million. This would be a team-friendly outcome that still acknowledges and validates Watson’s breakout year.
In summary, here are the (hypothetical) moves:
- Waive and stretch Jonas Valanciunas
- Pick up Jalen Pickett’s team option
- Keep the 26th pick in the draft
- Re-sign Spencer Jones at the minimum
- Re-sign Peyton Watson to an ascending deal starting at $20 million
This adds up to a payroll just shy of $230 million, with 12 roster spots occupied. Teams are required to carry at least 14 players on the 15-man roster. We saw the Nuggets leave the 15th vacant for most of last season. It seems likely that they’ll want to repeat that strategy to help with their cap crunch. But even if they do, they’re left with $29 million to cut and two more roster spots to fill.
Ideally, part of the solution is to find a trade that achieves both goals by breaking down a single large salary into multiple smaller ones. But keep in mind that it can be difficult to pull off in the NBA’s apron era, when there are usually more teams trying to shed money than welcome more of it.
Which players can the Nuggets trade?
Outside of Jokic (and Valanciunas), here are Denver’s bulkiest 2026-27 salaries:
- Jamal Murray: $50.1 million, three years remaining
- Aaron Gordon: $32 million, three years remaining
- Cam Johnson: $23.1 million, one year remaining
- Christian Braun: $21.6 million, five years remaining
- Zeke Nnaji: $7.5 million, two years remaining
The reality is that neither Braun nor Nnaji can be the centerpiece of a trade. Now that Nnaji is halfway through his extension with a descending salary against an increasing cap, the Nuggets might be able to get off his contract by attaching him to a better player or by intervening in a random trade between other teams that need salary filler to complete the deal. (Keep an eye on the Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes — Denver could look to get involved as a fourth or fifth party, depending on how the trade landscape develops for Milwaukee’s superstar.)
Or the Nuggets could get rid of Nnaji in a straight-up salary-dump trade if they can convince someone to take second-round picks or a future first-round swap along with his contract.
Braun’s salary and term are probably both too daunting a commitment to say the same for him. Other teams just aren’t going to be sold on the 25-year-old guard right now. His shooting and handles are both under the microscope. The Nuggets can explore the market and offer to mortgage what’s left of their future draft pick pool, but they’ll have a hard time finding any takers.
That leaves you with Murray, Gordon and Johnson as the three main options who are:
- Good enough to draw interest from other teams and become a primary trade chip.
- Paid enough to help the Nuggets unload substantial salary in a trade.
Johnson is probably the easiest of the three to move because he’s on an expiring contract next season. In other words, he’s a low-risk commitment. Contenders and tankers alike could be swayed to take the 43% outside shooter, and Denver might even be able to get back some future draft capital. The problem is that his value might also be somewhat diluted by Denver’s intentions to dump salary. You have to view “getting off of Player X’s contract” as part of the return when evaluating this type of trade.
Now, consider that even if the Nuggets are able to reduce their payroll by most of Johnson’s $23 million salary, they would پbe a few million over the tax.
Sacrificing him isn’t enough. The math simply doesn’t add up. If you completely ignore NBA trade rules and other teams’ priorities, and if you subtract Johnson’s salary and Nnaji’s from $230 million without adding a single cent back, you still end up around $199.5 million with four open spots. Four veteran minimum free agents later, you’re paying $209.3 million for a roster with no salaries between $5 million and $21 million.
If the financial goal is merely to avoid the $222 million second apron, deciding between Johnson and Watson should suffice.
But the only way to actually duck the repeater tax, barring a miracle of front-office work by Jon Wallace and Ben Tenzer, is to dump Johnson and lose another valuable player. Maybe that means letting Watson go in free agency, or maybe that means trading Murray or Gordon.
Either way, it’s a financial dilemma that illuminates the meaning behind Kroenke’s message.
If the Nuggets “run it back” with their three best players, but they also want to evade the tax, the cost might be both Watson and Johnson — leaving them with a shallower, older version of the team that just lost in the first round.
If they truly want to prioritize youth, athleticism and defense at all costs (well, except for the tax), they might be sacrificing two starters to keep Watson — even at a relatively low-end salary projection, as we’ve outlined.
Neither option would be encouraging for the team’s championship aspirations in a league ruled by Oklahoma City and San Antonio.
And neither option would be a flattering look for Stan Kroenke, .
The counterpoint from ownership would be that two consecutive years out of the tax can set Denver up for three seasons of aggressive spending that coincide with the term of Jokic’s next contract. And that a first-round exit from the 2026 playoffs revealed the Nuggets are overdue for a reset of the core.
A reasonable rebuttal would be that next season is always the most important season when a player like Jokic is in his prime — and possibly nearing the end of it.
