The Nuggets are quiet. Too quiet. One of the most fascinating teams of the NBA offseason has been biding its time, making only a pair of veteran minimum signings in the first three days of free agency. Meanwhile, major trades have been completed around the league over the last two weeks. Many teams are done with their business already. Here are the big winners and losers of the summer so far.
Winners: Philadelphia 76ers and Toronto Raptors
Let’s start with the blockbusters. The depth of the Eastern Conference is going to be harrowing next season, and two teams have gotten meaningfully better in the past few days. One came completely out of nowhere. The 76ers were forgotten. Not only had they not been linked to Jaylen Brown before they acquired him from their rival, but they had also been widely regarded as perhaps the least interesting team of the offseason. They were basically stuck with the same roster core that got swept by New York in the second round — two of the most burdensome, seemingly untradeable contracts in the NBA (Joel Embiid and Paul George), and two of the most electrifying, untouchable young guards in the league (Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe). At both ends of the spectrum of trade potential, zero maneuverability.
Then the Celtics came along. They were floating Brown to anyone willing to listen (including Denver). — the 36-year-old George, two first-round picks and two second-rounders — was an astonishing package that revealed Boston’s desperation and Brown’s sparse market. It was understood that Philadelphia would need to attach at least one first-round pick, probably more, to get off George’s contract. If that accounts for the two first-rounders in the deal, then the 76ers essentially got Brown for nothing.
Whatever the analytics community thinks of his value as a supermax player, one thing Brown does is play. He’s been available for 82% of regular-season games in the past five years and hasn’t missed a playoff game during that time. The 76ers just got a durable Finals MVP who’s seven years younger than the aging star they sacrificed. They have a team that should win a lot of games next season, even if Embiid is in and out of the lineup.
Toronto’s trade to reunite with Kawhi Leonard was likewise an absolute home run. Leonard does have his injury demons, but he’s such a perfect fit with the Raptors’ current roster that he’s well worth the risk (Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, two firsts, two seconds). An emotionally satisfying trade for the city, and one with legitimate upside. Leonard and Scottie Barnes will be fun to watch.
Losers: Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks
The biggest trade of the offseason has turned out to be one of the most underwhelming. The Bucks were obviously going to be losers no matter what they got back for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Tough to feel excited about three first-round picks right after you’re forced to trade a franchise icon.
Miami, meanwhile, gave up a lot of young role players and walked away with a pretty stripped-down roster that … doesn’t seem that much better than the Milwaukee team Antetokounmpo is leaving?
Certainly, if LeBron James jumps on board, the 2026-27 iteration of the Heat will suddenly look more compelling. But this looks like an incomplete team right now, especially after losing free agent deadeye Norman Powell to Chicago. Pat Riley’s vision for the Giannis era probably involves multiple transaction cycles. Every trade deadline and offseason going forward is an opportunity to keep building out the supporting cast.
And even when that vision starts to come into everyone else’s view, there’s the question of whether Giannis and Bam Adebayo can fit together as a pair of non-shooting bigs in the modern game.
Miami can’t be called an outright loser after acquiring a top-five player in the league. But it’s not an immediate championship contender either.
Winner: The whiteboard and someone on it
Wearing a Wimbledon bucket hat, superagent Rich Paul went on his podcast Friday, rolled out a whiteboard and provided a literal illustration of his client LeBron James’ free agency options, including the perks of various potential destinations. (Steph Curry? Oil? Golf? Africa?)
As a piece of NBA content: 10 out of 10, no notes.
The whiteboard is an instant classic meme that will live on in the social media era of basketball fandom. And one of the 10 teams listed on it will eventually be rewarded with arguably the most valuable bargain in the history of NBA free agency. Depending on who you ask, James is still generally considered a top-20 or top-30 player in the league, even at 41 years old. He’s very likely to sign for less than $20 million (maybe even for the veteran minimum salary) to play with a contender.
From a basketball standpoint alone, it will be a staggeringly team-friendly deal. That’s before considering the merchandise and ticket sales, especially if James announces that his 24th season will be his last.
Someone will win big. In the meantime, James and Paul can relish being the center of attention in an NBA offseason, one last time, for old time’s sake.
Loser: Buyers being sellers
At the trade deadline in February, we wrote that one of the big winners was the trend of “sellers being buyers.” Tanking teams like Washington, Utah and Indiana collected win-now talent to stash for the next season. Now the Wizards can unleash Anthony Davis and Trae Young alongside No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa and recent No. 2 pick Alex Sarr. The Jazz will play a starting lineup with Jaren Jackson Jr., Lauri Markkanen and newly drafted Darryn Peterson. The Pacers, even after losing their pick to lousy lottery luck, will add Ivica Zubac to a core that reached Game 7 of the Finals a year ago.
We’re seeing the inverse of that strategy from multiple would-be contenders this summer.
Boston’s decision to trade Brown was jarring in large part because it signaled a willingness to take a step back next season. Brown and Jayson Tatum never ended up getting a chance to play to the final buzzer of a season together after they won the championship. Tatum was out for the end of the 2025 New York series and the 2026 Philly one. Who’s to say they couldn’t have won the title in 2027 with Tatum fully recovered from his torn Achilles?
Equally fascinating is Charlotte’s decision to sell high on LaMelo Ball after the best season of his career — and his first with 50 or more games played since 2021-22. We’re not too far removed from Ball being perceived as a losing player with negative trade value. The Hornets jumped at an opportunity to get back a starter-level role player (Naz Reid), a first-rounder, three first-round swaps and three second-rounders for him. That could very well prove to be a shrewd if cold-hearted decision.
But for us neutrals, it’s a shame that nobody will ever know what would’ve happened had Charlotte decided to run it back with a starting lineup that posted a league-best 25.7 net rating from Jan. 1 through the end of last season. Ball was the engine of that offense, a brilliant playmaker with positional size and a talent for making his teammates better (when he wasn’t launching one-legged logo 3s early in the shot clock).
Just one scribe’s hunch: The Hornets will miss him. They have an abundance of shooting but not much shot creation, especially after flipping Miles Bridges for Royce O’Neale and Grayson Allen. That trade was another savvy bit of business by a front office that seems to know what it’s doing. Still, it indicates an organizational willingness to temporarily regress — and a belief that last season wasn’t real.
This approach could become more common. Trades and extensions are the new free agency in the current CBA landscape. When playoff teams get antsy under pressure to offer long-term max extensions to second-tier stars, they might simply opt to trade those players. Get something back while you can; make the contract negotiation someone else’s problem. The difference in the two situations this summer? One team sold high; another team miscalculated and thought it was.
Winner: Walker Kessler
The biggest individual winner of the offseason, and it’s not particularly close. Nothing about Kessler’s situation said “four years, $130 million, player option.” He was a restricted free agent coming off a season-ending injury. He played five games for Utah last year.
But the Lakers had cap space, and Luka Doncic wanted them to get him a shot-blocking, rim-running center to catch his alley-oops. That manufactured leverage for Kessler, who ended up in Hollywood via sign-and-trade. The Jazz made the most of it, getting back two first-round picks and two swaps — basically an added payment from Los Angeles to guarantee safe delivery of the asset, rather than dealing with the risk and suspense of an offer sheet.
Think about what those picks say: Kessler (at $32 million per year) was deemed more valuable than Jaylen Brown (at $60 million) this week. It’s an incredible career move for the 7-footer, who got paid handsomely — maybe even overpaid — and should automatically look good playing with Doncic.
An admittedly biased take from someone who covered Kessler in college: That contract isn’t as much of a reach as most NBA observers have labeled it. His job next to Luka will be simplified — roll, catch, finish — and he’s got a burgeoning jump shot that could diversify what the Lakers are able to do with him. Defensively, he’s already one of the best rim protectors in the game. (I should know. I’ve tried to score on him.)
The Lakers will attract a range of opinions for the next three months. They’ve used their cap space to overhaul their team around Doncic and Austin Reaves, despite the fact that they seemed content to move on from arguably the best player in this free agency class. Can the combination of Kessler, Quentin Grimes, Sandro Mamukelashvili and Collin Sexton raise this team’s ceiling? Or will Los Angeles remain a clear level below OKC and San Antonio?
Loser: Julius Randle (and Tim Connelly if this doesn’t work)
The way this turned out for Randle in Minnesota is pretty tough. Two years after the Knicks traded him for Karl-Anthony Towns, he watched his former team end a 53-year championship drought, then immediately got traded — not just traded, but salary-dumped — to the other team in New York that might as well not exist compared to the Knicks. He’ll get to experience the city’s joy during their victory lap next season. He just won’t get to take part in it.
Randle was excellent for the Timberwolves in the 2025 playoffs. Not so much in 2026. Getting rid of him was the means by which Minnesota acquired Ball. It was also Connelly’s way of admitting that he lost the KAT trade.
The Wolves had clearly reached their ceiling with a Randle-Rudy Gobert frontcourt, getting crushed in the Western Conference Finals two consecutive years. They felt like they had no choice but to pivot. Now they’re pretty much out of draft capital and out of methods to improve their roster around Anthony Edwards if the Ball experiment crashes and burns. No pressure.
Under-the-radar winner: Chicago Bulls. They’re under new front office management, and it shows. With a new lottery system that “relegates” the odds of the worst teams, they can’t be excessively bad next season. But they’re not trying to be a true playoff contender, either. Enter Norman Powell and Nic Claxton, two solid players on good contracts to help Chicago have an identity in the first year of Caleb Wilson’s career. Poaching coach Tiago Splitter from Portland was a nice touch. Nothing extravagant this summer, but smart moves and a sense of direction.
Under-the-radar loser: Detroit Pistons. Until further notice. Patience at the trade deadline last season was one thing. The No. 1 seed in the East was comfortable with the likelihood that its flaws would be exposed in the playoffs. They were. So now … still nothing. Running it back with Jalen Duren on a more expensive contract and swapping out Tobias Harris for John Collins isn’t going to cut it. The East will be too good. It’s time for the Pistons to go get a secondary scorer.
