Sean Payton drinks 10 Cokes a day. He does not chase them with Dramamine.
No one gets motion sickness from watching the Broncos offense. Or from playing in it.
The Broncos ranked 32nd in pre-snap motion last season. Oh, they had movement. They collected 26 pre-snap penalties. But Payton has long created mismatches with personnel groupings, something former offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi called a non-negotiable.
It is something to remain mindful of when recalling that the Broncos won more close games than anyone could imagine last season. They won in more ways, rallying past the Eagles, stunning the Giants, paralyzing the Bills, than anyone thought possible.
But they lost the offseason, acquiring one player with star power in receiver Jaylen Waddle. Which pales in comparison to what they could lose next: their status as an AFC bully.
For the Broncos to avoid the next-season fate of teams that led the league in one-score wins, they need a fix. They must improve significantly on first and second down, particularly early in games.
As impressive as their final record was — all praise for exceeding expectations with 14 victories — the offensive numbers were sobering. According to Warren Sharp Football, the Broncos ranked 23rd overall in early down efficiency. Which tracks since Denver finished with 75 punts, and the most three-and-outs of any of the final eight teams in the postseason.
But the deeper the dig, the worse it gets, like , only to reveal an empty bottle.
In first halves, per Sharp, the Broncos ranked 27th in drives that reached the red zone, 26th in scoring drives and 25th in points per possession.
It is no wonder they needed Bo Nix to sprinkle pixie dust with a league-best seven game-winning drives. How unlikely was the success? The Broncos became the first team ever to win 14 games when trailing in 15.
All together now, this is not sustainable. Never has been. And certainly won’t be with the 2026 schedule.
“Trying to win like that puts a lot of stress on the players and coaches,” said Super Bowl 50 champion and NFL Westwood One analyst Ryan Harris. “They cannot continue to wait to change during the season.”
Payton appears prepared to do something about it. He promoted Davis Webb to play-caller, who seems intent on simplifying the offense to make it more consistent.
At first, I figured his focus would be on verbiage. But for the offense to click, let’s be real, it must go far beyond that.
“Part of that is what I talked to Davis Webb about: core philosophies. What are your core run plays that you can run against anything? What will you stick to? Of those core plays, how many passing concepts can you have that look identical and put defenders in major conflict?” explained Mark Schlereth, a former Pro Bowl offensive guard and current Fox NFL color commentator and 104.3 The Fan morning host. “There needs to be a real philosophical shift.”
Think of it in terms of a restaurant. Is it better to feature 60 dishes or six entrees?
Going from a Waffle House play sheet to the In-N-Out menu could mercifully end the slow starts over the past two seasons.
“Running the ball is like saving money. We all know we should do it, but we never do it enough. I can’t blame Sean Payton when you look at how he put together a team that reached the AFC Championship in (three years),” Harris said. “But, right now, opponents look at their offense and believe they want to pass with Bo Nix. They have to prove they are going to run.”
From the outside looking in, there was confusion about the scheme. The offseason was used to introduce the wide zone. It was a topic of conversation during training camp. But the Broncos rarely used it during the season. Complicating matters, Payton has a pattern of never repeating run calls in the first half. So 12 rushing attempts could include 12 different concepts.
That is no way to establish a rhythm. And the production bore this out in the statistics of starter J.K. Dobbins (4.1 yards per carry in the first half, 5.6 in the second) and R.J. Harvey (3.5, 3.9).
Don’t want the Broncos to press their luck in nail-biters? Abandon the potluck run game.
“Mike Tomlin told me once that every play is not a smorgasbord. Dobbins realized that a physical 3-and-half-yard run is a freaking awesome play,” Schlereth said. “They have to get to a place where they are not trying to do everything. When we were winning a ton of games with (coach) Mike (Shanahan), we ran six plays. I would joke about it. But it was true. It’s the 10,000-hour rule. You have defended it 100 times. We have spent 10,000 hours on it, so we don’t care if you know what is coming, we are going to execute it.”
If Webb can take Payton’s offense and retool the run game mix, everything would feel different. The middle of the field would no longer be radioactive. Everybody talks about Waddle delivering 70-yard plays, but what the Broncos need are 15-yard gains against safeties in between the hashes before going deep.
“And that’s where Davis Webb can bring the player’s perspective to the calls,” Harris said. “Don’t run play action until we have run for two first downs.”
If the Broncos impose their will on the ground, nothing is off the table for this team.
Dobbins will become the Broncos’ first 1,000-yard rusher since Phillip Lindsay in 2019. Rookie Jonah Coleman, who has an appetite for contact, will reinforce the identity. Even Harvey might figure it out and stop trying to bounce everything outside.
Nix is fantastic in the clutch. On this, we can all agree. It did not happen by accident. He waved the fourth-quarter wand practically every week. He got good at it.
Run with purpose on early downs, and Nix will become more accurate, more consistent. Run with balance that opens first-half leads, and the defense will double its meager 14 takeaways.
Gaining horsepower sounds simple. It is not.
But if the Broncos improve early-down efficiency, their late-season run will end at SoFi Stadium.
