The similarities remain impossible to miss. The Nuggets are becoming the last few years of the Bucks with Giannis.
Their championship window has closed. Slammed shut by too many generous contracts.
Dynasties — or even multiple championships — are sabotaged by loyalty.
The Nuggets have become an iceberg in a sea of glaciers. Locked. Wedged. Jammed into a tight spot.
Now the rest of the league is dunking on them.
As it stands, the Nuggets are the only team in the second apron, adding $32 million to their luxury tax bill by matching Oklahoma City’s offer sheet for Spencer Jones.
The Nuggets celebrated the move on social media. Hopefully the party music was so loud they could not hear Thunder GM Sam Presti laughing.
He was playing chess. And the Nuggets were playing battleship.
It fits perfectly in an offseason where every move seems painful and reactionary.
Now, it is fair to wonder if Jokic can trust the organization’s vision going forward.
Lost in Jokic’s charm because of his sense of humor and loose grasp of the English language is his brain.
If you think the player with the highest basketball IQ was not sending a message by not signing a contract extension this summer, it’s time to have your head examined.
We all know Jokic says he wants to finish his career in Denver. That he loves it here. And delaying his next deal will bring him additional money, which clearly matters more to him than most believe.
But is this about his salary when he is in his mid-30s? Or his way of floating a text bubble into the offices of president Josh Kroenke and co-GMs Jon Wallace and Ben Tenzer?
Remove emotion and look at the situation. It is unnerving at best, and nightmarish at worst.
Which brings us back to the Bucks, and the uncomfortable comparisons to the Nuggets.
Milwaukee was a contender from 2018-2024. They won the NBA championship in the 2020-21 season. They have not advanced past the semifinals since, including three straight first-round knockouts before missing the playoffs entirely last season.
The Nuggets claimed their only NBA title in the 2022-23 season. They have since won two postseason series and were pantsed in the opening round by the Timberwolves in May.
The Bucks were positioned to make a pair of strong runs, but injuries to Khris Middleton undermined them.
Sound familiar? The Nuggets thought they had parades in their sights until Aaron Gordon got hurt. When his hamstring and calf issues sprouted, the Nuggets were eliminated by the Thunder and Timberwolves.
As the Bucks failed to reach their past glory, their seasons became a meal of frustration with a side of drama. Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future became a topic. Trade rumors swirled, forever leading to nothing until this offseason, when they became something.
Giannis was agreeable to exiting, steering his way to the Miami Heat. After 13 years in Wisconsin, the Greek Freak was gone to South Beach.
Jokic is entering his 12th season in Denver, and squinting is not required to see the storm clouds hovering. Maybe it is no big deal. But if Denver wins 42 games this season and trades Gordon in February, are we sure Jokic will remain a Nugget for life?
Especially as teams begin making moves to free up salary cap space to trade for him.
This season sets up as a test of health, patience and purpose. The Nuggets need a plan. Leave the loyalty programs to Starbucks and Amazon Prime.
If the Nuggets avoid injuries, as unlikely as that is with aging players, they could contend. But nobody without a KSE email believes they are dethroning the Spurs or the former champion Thunder in the rugged Western Conference.
Their over-under is 49.5 wins, four fewer than last season. They are going the wrong direction. Over the last three seasons, the Bucks posted 49, 48 and 32 victories, bottoming out a year ago.
The Nuggets look like they are on the same track, if only a season behind.
While the salary cap broke the Bucks, it has the Nuggets stuck.
They can’t do anything other than hope a tepid market brings back Peyton Watson on a qualifying offer or modest extension. Unless the Nuggets make a trade to get out of the apron, any sign-and-trade of Watson can only involve picks.
Remember that when dreaming of them getting Ryan Rollins or A.J. Green and a first-rounder from Milwaukee.
Losing Watson, even for value, would be a disaster. They need to bring him back even if they have to execute a salary dump with Cam Johnson or Gordon. They have to get younger.
Watson is exactly the type of player the Nuggets require in a league where the regular season and playoffs feature two different styles of basketball.
He can create his own shot, drain 3s and play with defensive intensity to change momentum, something that was desperately needed when Denver got punked in the Minnesota series.
The Nuggets find themselves in this mess because of the CBA and their own mistakes. In a vacuum, the contract for Gordon (three years, $103.6 million) made sense. However, once Denver decided to reward Mr. Nugget, they needed to become prudent.
They never considered not paying Jamal Murray. But even with his All-Star berth last season, he is not a super max player. And having two on the same team — along with Jokic– is a problem. They doubled down on the mistake by paying Christian Braun with a five-year, $125 million extension.
I liked the deal in a silo. But I thought it meant the Nuggets would ship out Gordon, Murray or Johnson — or two of them — this summer. Instead, they confronted a sobering truth. Gordon has a limited market because he has been hurt too often. And Murray, like Jaylen Brown, is not viewed as valuable to other teams as he is to Denver.
It does not help that Gordon turns 31 in September with bouncy legs that are starting to age like Blake Griffin’s. And that Murray is 29.
The Nuggets did things that are not as easy to criticize. They were not cheap. They rewarded their own. But they did so without a vision for how the puzzle pieces would fit in two years, three years, or longer.
It was like they never considered what would happen if impact players started getting injured.
So this summer, when everything was on the table, has served as a big nothing burger.
The Nuggets have their hands tied because of immovable contracts. And the one they wanted a signature on was kicked down the road until next offseason.
It used to be that Jokic and Giannis were tied together as former MVPs.
Now, it runs deeper, and this offseason is creating uncomfortable thoughts that Jokic might be traded or leave someday.
Want more sports news? Sign up for the Sports Omelette to get all our analysis on Denver’s teams.
