Even amid Ezequiel Tovar’s career season, the harbinger was glaring.
Fresh off signing a seven-year, $65.3 million contract extension that foretold his status as the Rockies’ shortstop of the future, Tovar slashed .269/.295/.469 in 2024 with a .763 OPS, 26 homers, National League-best 45 doubles and 3.6 bWAR.
But amid that success, Tovar also struck out a dubious distinction that foretold his offensive struggles over the next couple seasons because of his inability to control the zone.
Tovar’s freefall last year and this one have become an unmissable blight, especially as the Rockies’ offense has demonstrated drastic overall improvement in 2026. By the traditional stats, the sabermetrics and the eye test, Tovar’s playing like a shell of his breakout self from two seasons ago.
While Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer has continually backed the shortstop, Tovar acknowledged his backslide.
“I’m not going to put my head down,” Tovar told The Denver Post through an interpreter. “I understand that a lot of people had high expectations for me, and I also had high expectations for myself. I had my goals and I’m not hitting them this year. But I’m going to continue to battle out there.
“I know I can (hit better), but I have to keep working. I have to keep improving. I have to get more out of myself. So believe me, I’m looking for a way out of this.”
³last year’s dip this summer’s continued struggles raise the question of whether the shortstop will ever be the caliber of player the Rockies expected when they inked that contract.
How much longer can Colorado afford to wait for Tovar to figure it out? It will surely be a question the front office reckons with this offseason, especially considering how the over the next four seasons. He’ll make $8.2 in 2027, $11.2 million in ’28, $14.2 million in ’29, $16.2 million in ’30 and then has a $23 million club option in ’31 that includes a $2.5 million buyout.
What initially looked like a team-friendly deal has now become a possible payroll albatross, especially given that trading the shortstop this offseason is probably not a realistic possibility due to the combination of his contract and his performance.
The most worrisome part is, it’s not just an extended slump that’s behind Tovar’s lack of offense this season. As that 200-K campaign in ’24 foretold, it’s Tovar’s total lack of command and undisciplined approach in his at-bats. Consider the following:
Tovar chases more than anyone in baseball, and he swings too much. Entering Friday’s series in St. Louis, his swing percentage on pitches outside the strike zone the worst in MLB. He also swings at more pitches inside the zone than anyone, too, at 83.0%. Of those in-zone swings, his contact rate is 84.5%, which ranks 28th-worst. So on top of unnecessarily expanding the zone, he’s also missing pitches in the zone at a well-above average rate. His total swing rate is 61.5%, 4% higher than the next most aggressive hitter, Toronto’s Ernie Clement at 57.5%. The end result has been dwindling average (.207, including .201 at home), power (9 homers) and value (-0.8 bWAR).
Tovar isn’t dictating his at-bats and is getting dominated by two pitches. Tovar’s 71.5% first-pitch strike percentage is the highest in MLB, so he’s falling behind quicker than any hitter in the game. Nearly 80% of the pitches he sees are either fastball (51.9%) or slider (26.9%). with the high fastball, and getting him to fish on sliders low and away. He ranks last in MLB in wFB (fastball runs above average) at -16.0, hitting just .185 against the pitch, and is 16th-worst in wSL (slider runs above average) at -4.1. All of this is contributing to another season with a high strikeout rate (25.4%, bottom fourth of baseball) and much lower barrel rates than he posted in 2024 (42 barrels that season, ranked 51st, as opposed to 17 so far this year, ranked 126th).
The bat isn’t the only concern — the glove’s fallen off a cliff, too. When Tovar won the NL Gold Glove Award in ’24, he was a wizard at shortstop who was one of the most valuable fielders in the game. But the sabermetrics don’t lie — his glove has been far from that level this season. He has -2 defensive runs saved this season, so below average, after posting 10 defensive runs saved in ’24. in the 44th percentile in range with 0 outs above average in ’26, just two seasons after he was in the 98th percentile in the metric with 15 outs above average.
With those three breakdowns in mind, the Rockies currently don’t have many options to replace Tovar.
Ryan Ritter and Chad Stevens are other shortstops who are in Triple-A; beyond that, Andy Perez is a promising 22-year-old in Double-A while top prospects Ethan Holliday (out for season ) and Tyler Bell (No. 10 overall pick this year, but out for the season with shoulder surgery) are still far off from arriving in LoDo.
The most obvious solution could already be on the active roster: rookie Cole Carrigg. Colorado has beta-tested Carrigg at shortstop, where he’s played four games and had one start in addition to his duties in center field. Carrigg says he’s ready to play there more, if called upon. It’s a position he played sparingly in college and the minors.
“It’s definitely pretty wild to be playing short in the big leagues,” Carrigg said. “I think you’ve just got to play with confidence and just believe in yourself, no matter where it is, and playing everywhere is something I’ve always done. But whatever (Schaeffer) needs, I’m going to do it, and do it to the best of my ability.”
If Carrigg got more starts at shortstop down the stretch, Jake McCarthy would become the de facto starting center fielder in the post-Brenton Doyle era, with utilityman Tyler Freeman capable of also seeing more time out there to help keep McCarthy fresh.
Whatever the case, the final couple months of the season would be a good time for the Rockies to see if Carrigg, whose bat has been potent through his first 47 career games, could warrant more time at shortstop. Meanwhile, Colorado will surely keep plugging Tovar into the lineup; the 25-year-old has been hitting better lately, including a .333 average over the past couple of weeks.
“I look at every aspect of the game, not just my chase (rate), that I need to improve on,” Tovar said. “… That’s something that every coach out here and everyone (in the organization) is trying to help me with. And that’s something that we are collectively trying to answer.”
Tovar will have all offseason to dig into his issues, make changes, and attempt to bring a fresh approach into 2027. Barring a big surprise, he’ll remain the starting shortstop going into next season. But the clock is now ticking. If the Rockies are going to truly turn the corner into contenders over the next few years, a weak-hitting shortstop can’t be part of the plan.
