Troy Renck: Living in the shadows has a cost, but visibility also comes at a price. When Peyton Watson became a restricted free agent, he figured to be in demand. Just 23, he delivered a breakthrough, averaging 18 points over his final 36 games last season while splattering the stat sheet with rebounds, assists and blocks. Even with youth on his side and a near limitless ceiling, no one came calling. At least not like expected. Was it the league’s restrictive financial landscape? Perhaps. But the bigger question is, did Klutch Sports and, by proxy Watson, misjudge the market?
Sean Keeler: If Klutch wanted to play the “long” game, mission accomplished. But the money game? Brick city, baby. The Nuggets have almost all the cards now. The Bulls passed. The Lakers passed. The Hawks passed. If hoops insiders told us on June 30 that a reported $70 million offer over five years was the best money Watson would have on the table all summer, we’d have laughed them out of the room. And yet — here we are, almost six weeks later, and it’s still topping the leaderboard. Who’s laughing now? It ain’t Klutch, I promise you that.
Renck: Agents get paid to get clients paid. Klutch Sports made Watson feel important this summer. His show pony events included attending the ESPYs and enjoying the suite life at a World Cup game. But the money never matched his growing profile, and that stings. Teams that made sense, like the Lakers and Bulls, spent their money elsewhere. The Bucks and Clippers are confirmed suitors, but neither appears willing to provide a lucrative offer sheet. That falls back on the agent. The Nuggets are winning this game of chicken. There has been speculation that Watson could return to Denver on the $6.5 million qualifying offer, making an enormous bet on himself to cash in as a true free agent after the season. It demonstrates how little leverage Watson has left. Without an offer sheet for Watson, the Nuggets can exercise patience. But there are no winners if the Nuggets’ purpose is not to keep Watson long-term.
Keeler: No, and you do wonder what effect that has on the locker room, even on a short-term basis. There’s no “i” in “Nuggets,” but there are multiple “g”s — and feelings can be hurt when money’s involved. Both sides have to make cold, impersonal business decisions. It’s a tricky balance. The Nuggets have spent liberally on the parts of their core they really, really like, and being the one piece they’re not spending liberally on does send a message. But I understand management’s play here. According to Basketball-Reference.com, the NBA player whose most recent four-year career run most closely matches P-Swat’s is Guess what Green makes? Roughly $14.6 million — which is about what the Nuggets have offered Watson.
Renck: Klutch Sports has real gravitas. The agency, however, is not clairvoyant. They have missed on a few restricted clients, leading to standoffs. And this is not what they expected for Watson. If Watson shows a willingness to play on the qualifying offer, he can pressure the Nuggets to avoid this embarrassment. Is it enough to make them blink? Not likely. With the offer sheets not budging for now, the easy solution is for the Nuggets to avoid a sign-and-trade for picks or a player they don’t really want and offer Watson $20 million per season. The problem? If Klutch Sports promised Watson $25-million plus — more than Christian Braun, of course — then they would have to admit they misread the market. Don’t count on it.
Keeler: “Cede” is a four-letter word in agent circles. So is “quit,” and “cave.” But Klutch is going to have to come up with something insanely clutch to pull a win out of this one. Watson is a fun, rangy, athletic talent, the kind you wish the Nuggets could find more of — a true development success story. But he’s not a proven $30-million player (yet), and the rest of the league knows it. How much did not playing in the postseason, when the Nuggets could’ve really used him, hurt his stock? That’s the question on the mind of more than a few Nuggets fans right now. Based on the last two months, it’s clearly been on the mind of more than a few front offices, too.
