Colorado’s next representative from the 7th Congressional District could be decided in a Democratic primary election, and when the stakes go up, so does the rhetoric.
Last week, Ed Perlmutter sent a letter to Peggy Lamm suggesting she wasn’t being a good Democrat. She in turn accused him of the same thing.
These former colleagues from the Colorado legislature, both centrists, used to get along so well. But now there’s blood in the water. The incumbent, Republican Bob Beauprez, is “gearing up” to run for governor, a spokesman says, but isn’t ready to make a formal announcement just yet.
So it seems there will indeed be an open seat, and registration figures give the Democrats an edge of close to 6,000 votes in the district.
Incumbents can overcome the raw numbers; Beauprez did it handily when he was re-elected last year. After winning by just 121 votes in his first race in 2002, Beauprez won by 29,500 votes in 2004 – even though the district at the time had 7,000 more Democrats than Republicans.
That’s why many Republicans see Beauprez as a proven vote-getter and thus their best candidate for governor in 2006. They’re willing to risk the 7th District if they can keep the governor’s office when term-limited Bill Owens vacates it in 2006.
So far, though, Mark Holtzman, recently University of Denver president, is the only officially announced Republican candidate for governor. And he’s busily raising a lot of money.
If Republicans lose the 7th, some think they can compensate by winning back the 3rd Congressional District. After all, Republicans there have increased their margin over the Democrats from 4,800 voters in 2002 to 16,600 as of last month, according to figures from the secretary of state’s office.
But it’s no longer an open seat. John Salazar, a Democrat, overcame the voter registration gap to win by more than 12,000 votes last fall. The incumbent, Republican Scott McInnis, had decided not to run again. Now Salazar is the incumbent. And incumbency, as Beauprez proved last November, is a powerful thing.
Unaffiliated voters make the difference. They have no party loyalties. They’re unpredictable; image and name recognition impress them more than party labels. They’re a third of the electorate statewide, including in the 3rd and 7th districts.
In the 7th, Democrats have gained about 2,000 voters since the district was created four years ago, while the number of registered Republicans is down by almost 3,500.
Rick O’Donnell, one of Gov. Bill Owens’ top advisers, is the only declared Republican candidate. Jefferson County Treasurer Mark Paschall has expressed an interest in running, but only if Beauprez runs for governor. Paschall has done some controversial things over the years, but they’re the sorts of things that appeal to the conservative activists who dominate the GOP’s nominating process.
The same is true for the Democrats at the other end of the political spectrum. Nominating assemblies and the caucuses before them are heavily influenced by the party’s left, people who embrace those “core party principles” Lamm and Perlmutter are feuding over.
Two weeks ago, before the outbreak of hostilities, Perlmutter was more collegial. When he was asked at a party district meeting to describe the differences between him and Lamm, he said this:
“I think she and I would be considered moderates. … She’s a friend of mine.” But, he added, “I’m hoping there’s not a primary. …That’s up to her. We’ll both stay in however long we stay in.”
He also pointed out he’s been endorsed by two big unions, service employees and food workers.
Lamm says she’s puzzled that Perlmutter would even suggest she might drop out. “It’s almost laughable,” she said, adding that she was willing to take on Beauprez even before all this talk of his running for governor.
And it’s still 14 months before the party primaries. “This is an interesting time in politics,” Lamm observed. “Everybody’s trying to fake each other out.”
Fred Brown, retired Capitol Bureau chief for The Denver Post, is also a former national president of the Society of Professional Journalists.
