Henry Kissinger once remarked that war in the Middle East was not made without Egypt and that peace in the Middle East was not made without Syria.
In the years since that observation, prospects for an area-wide settlement have been immeasurably complicated by two major U.S. military forays into the region, the two intifadas, the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks against the United States and the worldwide anti-terror repercussions, leadership changes in practically all frontline countries and the breakup of the Soviet Union, which altered the political alignments of nations and ethnic groups.
Accepting Kissinger’s remarks as valid, it would therefore be a considerable gamble for the United States to avert its gaze from, slight the prestige of or misread the motives of an actor with as much intrinsic importance as Syria.
“Inheriting Syria” is an obligatory read for anyone who wants to understand Syria’s critical position in all that unfolds in the Middle East and the risks inherent in minimizing that importance.
Flynt Leverett, a former CIA, National Security Council and State Department official, and current scholar at the Brookings Institution, has written a meticulously informed review of Syria’s domestic and international stances under 30-year strongman Hafez Assad and the policy continuity that his son Bashar has displayed in his five years at the helm.
Bashar Assad was an accidental president – his older brother, Basil, was being groomed to take their father’s place when a car crash took his life in 1994. This required that Bashar, who until then had been uninvolved with affairs of state (he is trained medically), come under father Hafez’s direct tutelage. In 2000, Hafez’s death required that a special constitutional arrangement be made so that Bashar, then only 34, could accede to the presidency. He also assumed a primary role in the ruling Baath party apparatus.
Under trying circumstances, the untested Bashar consolidated his position, fending off potential rivals and steering a course that hinted at reform without overly alienating Syria’s entrenched elites. Critically, Bashar mastered the intrigue of appointments – finding next-generation allies and replacing the old guard as the evolving situation dictated. His marriage within one year of assuming the role of supreme authority was, significantly, to a woman with ties to the newer power centers in Syrian society, her own professional development in finance and technology representing society’s more liberalizing elements.
Leverett furthers his case for Syrian singularity by reviewing the policies subscribed to by Hafez, which included backing for the Persian Gulf War in 1991. Perhaps as a reward for behaviors then regarded in line with U.S. interests, a Syrian separate agreement with Israel, based on Syria’s long-standing objective of full return of the Golan Heights, had support until the waning days of the Clinton administration.
Leverett notes that in the current administration’s efforts to “remake” the political culture of the Middle East, such an “inclusive” track toward Syria has been abandoned, an astigmatism that contributed to Leverett’s recent departure from the inner councils of Syrian policymaking.
Leverett identifies the various policy strands of the father and shows in what ways the son has displayed continuity and encouraged change. Of particular note are the fledgling efforts to promote social opening, the aloof stance Bashar has held toward the current Iraqi conflict and the reluctant but discernible help the Syrian government has provided in trying to stabilize the Iraq-Syria border. Leverett is clearly upset that the Bush administration does not appear to recognize Syrian efforts to break with expected behaviors, and that it seems to lack the ability to encourage further Syrian steps, no matter how timorous, that mollify U.S. concerns.
Syria’s regional straddle is surely a difficult one. With relations between the U.S. and Syria chilled over Syrian influence in Lebanon, U.S. claims of active Syrian support for the Iraqi insurgency and the recent report of a Syrian missile test, a thaw will not be achieved easily. With the Israeli pullout from Gaza about to begin, the balance of forces in the volatile Middle East are liable to subtly shift, leaving Washington with fresh opportunities and risks galore.
Hank Lamport teaches social studies and math in the Denver Public Schools system.
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Inheriting Syria
Bashar’s Trial by Fire
By Flynt Leverett
Brookings Institution Press, 240 pages, $27.95
