Jefferson and Madison could not have imagined that democracy would devolve to this, with local elected officials jumping out of airplanes and out-of-state millionaires amusing themselves playing chicken with Colorado when they have no skin in the game.
And here we voters are, afraid to turn on the television as the advertising war rages over Referendums C and D.
Most of us would rather listen to even the worst of the overwrought paid actors on political commercials than read our “blue book” voting guide. But early voting already has begun, so it’s past time to start taking this issue seriously.
Now, nothing about tax policy is simple, so don’t for a moment consider this brief summary to be the last word. But at its most basic, Referendum C would reduce the state income tax rate from 4.63 percent to 4.50 percent and allow the state to spend all the money collected for five years. It does not affect refunds for taxpayers who have had too much money withheld from their paychecks. It only affects the money specifically refunded under the revenue limitation measure nicknamed the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights.
C also would reset the revenue base under TABOR to compensate for the hit the state took during the 2001-02 recession.
Referendum D is simpler. It would allow the state to borrow so that projects supported by the money raised through Referendum C, such as bridge and road repairs, could start immediately.
If C passes, the blue book estimates the cost would range from $51 for taxpayers in the lowest income levels to $148 for those in the highest income levels in 2007. The total five-year cost to taxpayers is estimated at an average of $491.
Now, one advertising slogan is indisputable: It’s your dough. But here’s a little secret: Either way, you’re going to pay.
It’s just that if C fails, the cost is harder to calculate.
To help with the math, I called Brad Young, a Republican from Lamar (not exactly a breeding ground for spendy liberals), who is a former chairman of the legislature’s Joint Budget Committee.
For the record, he supports C and D.
Young won’t speculate on things like the economic impact of businesses that choose not to locate here or declines in real-estate values if development dries up.
But if C goes down, he said, 117,000 students attending the state’s 13 community colleges will see their tuition spike. It’s unavoidable. The general fund will have to be cut. A lot of money from the general fund goes to community colleges.
“Students there can expect huge tuition increases,” he said.
The state universities and four-year colleges also would see drastic cuts.
“Hank Brown has said that within a decade, all the state money will be gone from higher ed, but I’m a little skeptical of that statement,” Young said. “I think it will be gone in half that time.”
Beyond that, state park services will be increasingly dependent on fees, and more highways will become toll roads.
A report released last week by the Center for Tax Policy forecasts other cuts to departments such as public safety, public health and the environment, mental health, Medicaid and regulatory agencies.
Young said while these cuts are likely, they produce “very small savings for the general fund while creating high costs elsewhere.”
For example, reductions in state mental health services create costs for local governments that are left to deal with the mentally ill on the streets. Cutting the discretionary drug coverage under Medicaid floods emergency rooms with people suffering from conditions that could have been prevented with medication. Cuts to regulatory agencies leave consumers vulnerable to fraud and abuse.
Sure, it’s a tough call, but “this is where we are right now in Colorado,” Young said. “Representative government has slowly been eaten away. People don’t trust politicians.”
So voters – the wise and thoughtful as well as the cynical and disinterested – are about to set public policy for the next generation of Coloradans.
And either way, it’s going to cost you.
So don’t blow it.
Diane Carman’s column appears Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday. She can be reached at 303-820-1489 or dcarman@denverpost.com.
