Colorado’s power to lure residents from other states declined dramatically during the Internet bust, as economic hopes dimmed amid job losses and high costs of living.
U.S. Census Bureau data released Wednesday showed that the soaring out-of-state population influx fell more than 80 percent from 2000 to 2004, with the most stunning decline happening in Colorado’s urban core.
But the upshot, economists and demographers say, is that the state continued to draw outsiders despite the job losses, signaling that the state could see a dramatic uptick in population in coming years.
“That we could lose 100,000 jobs from 2001 to 2003 and still see people moving here totally surprised us,” said Elizabeth Garner, the state’s demographer. “It’s completely contrary to the idea that people will follow jobs.”
In the four years during the slowdown, Colorado’s average annual net migration into the state fell from 11.7 people per 1,000 to 1.9 per 1,000.
The Denver-Aurora area was hit the hardest among the state’s large metro areas, as the number of residents leaving exceeded the number of residents moving in from other states. The region mirrored the rest of the country and was one of the nation’s 18 largest metro areas that saw declines.
News, in general, is better across the state.
While Colorado failed to meet growth figures seen across much of the Rocky Mountain West, it fared far better than most of the country. Twenty-two states posted negative migration rates during the four- year span – mostly in the Midwest and Northeast – and only 15 states saw net gains above Colorado.
That’s good news for a state that was among the hardest hit after the Internet slide and the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, said Tucker Hart Adams, a regional economist with U.S. Bank in Denver.
Colorado saw 2.1 percent job growth last year and 2.5 percent gains in the first two months of 2006, Hart Adams noted, eventually meaning more jobs to attract new residents.
The cost of living has fallen, too, from about 12 percent above the U.S. average to roughly 1 percent above the national rate.
“All of that makes the state a more attractive place to be,” Hart Adams said. “Once people start seeing the dollars, they’re going to see the good airport, the climate, the mountains, and that’s going to be a draw all over again.”
Signs of a comeback already are apparent.
Garner, the demographer, said Colorado was seeing a slow rebound in 2004 that will continue, though it is unlikely to match the pre-2000 boom.
Douglas County was possibly the greatest anomaly in the post-Internet crash, seeing some of the most dramatic net domestic growth nationwide. The south-Denver suburb averaged 10,600 new residents each year from 2000 to 2004, putting it among the top 25 counties nationally.
“It’s a fabulous county as far as aesthetic quality, and it’s situated perfectly between the two largest cities in the state,” said Peter Italiano, Douglas County’s chief planner.
But some job seekers still are finding it tough to find work following layoffs, which could continue until as the economy slowly loosens.
Adrienne Flis, 27, a New York implant who lost a job as an office manager in Denver, got a lower-paying job as a bookkeeper but found it frustrating to control mounting debt.
She moved to Houston last month to work for her family’s business.
“I have friends who are looking to leave because they don’t see any hope,” Flis said.
“I couldn’t get out fast enough.”
Staff writer Joey Bunch contributed to this report.
Staff writer Robert Sanchez can be reached at 303-820-1282 or rsanchez@denverpost.com.
