Washington – The estimated 12 million undocumented immigrants living in the United States should not assume that a Democratic victory in this week’s mid-term congressional elections will translate into quick action on creating a path to legalization, analysts say.
Congressional leaders such as California Rep. Nancy Pelosi, who is likely to become speaker of the House of Representatives if the Democrats prevail on Tuesday, and Nevada Sen. Harry Reid insist they will press for immigrant-friendly legislation.
“We are not afraid to address comprehensive immigration reform,” Reid told EFE, while Pelosi maintains that “we have to offer a route toward legalization.”
In reality, however, Democrats are deeply divided on the issue, as indicated by their votes in Congress.
Sixty-four Democrats, or roughly a third of the party’s contingent in the House, voted in September for the bill – since signed into law – authorizing the construction of a double-fence along 1,226 kilometers (761 miles) of the U.S. border with Mexico.
In the Senate, 26 Democrats supported the measure and only 17 stood up to oppose what the Mexican government refers to as the “wall of shame.”
Construction of the border barrier is a priority for a hard-line faction of Republicans who reject out of hand even the modest guest-worker program put forward by their party’s leader, President George W. Bush.
It is also worth noting that 36 House Democrats voted last December in favor of a bill including not only the “wall” provisions but others that would make illegal immigration a felony and penalize U.S. citizens or organizations aiding undocumented migrants.
The most-recent amnesty for undocumented immigrants came in 1986 under Republican President Ronald Reagan, while the 1993-2001 Democratic administration of Bill Clinton witnessed heightened enforcement around border cities that are blamed for a rash of deaths among migrants forced to take riskier routes through the desert.
Analysts say that in this context, it’s no surprise that immigration reform is not a priority in the Democratic Party platform for the 2006 elections.
“I think the Democrats don’t have a clear position on immigration,” said Andrew Selee, director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center.
James Ferrer Jr., head of the Center for Latin American Issues at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, is likewise dubious that a Democratic triumph at the polls will lead automatically to a more-generous approach to immigration.
“The country still isn’t ready to give an adequate response to this question,” Ferrer said. “The debate can perhaps begin; that doesn’t mean it (reform) can be done.”
But though they don’t expect a Democratic-controlled Congress to make immigration a priority, both men suggest that a takeover of at least one chamber by the Democrats represents the only hope that the legislature will consider anything beyond simply spending more money on sealing the southern border.
“The Democrats have not shown great energy on this matter, but it’s clear that the Republicans in the lower chamber are opposed to a comprehensive immigration reform,” Selee said.
Once the dust settles from the election and the new Congress is sworn-in, Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) are expected to re-introduce their bill calling for a broad overall of the system based on recognition of the U.S. economy’s need for immigrant labor.
So while House Democrats will not take the initiative on the issue, they can be counted on to give a warmer reception to the McCain-Kennedy proposal than the Republicans did, according to Riordan Roett, director of the Latin America department at the School for Advanced International Studies in Washington. EFE
