Colorado s economy will slow next year, but not enough to prevent job hunters from moving to the state in much larger numbers, according to an annual economic forecast released today from the University of Colorado Boulder Leeds School of Business.
Colorado s economy should add 42,300 non-farm jobs next year, compared to an estimated 52,400 jobs this year, according to the 2007 Colorado Business Economic Outlook.
Colorado, however, won t escape a national slowdown as the country struggles with a housing slump and weaker consumer confidence.
The state s rate of job growth will fall from 2.3 percent this year to 1.9 percent next, resulting in 10,100 fewer non-farm jobs being added, the forecast predicts.
But that s still faster than the 1.5 percent rate of job growth expected nationally and should be enough to boost net migration to the state to 54,000 from 32,000 this year.
If that prediction pans out, Colorado will see its biggest increase in population since 2001, when net migration was 81,900.
Colorado will be the fourth fastest growing state in the nation, said Patricia Silverstein, president of Development Research Partners, adding that only Nevada, Arizona and Utah will see their populations grow at a faster rate. The influx of newcomers will result in a jump in the unemployment rate to 4.8 percent, up from 4.5 percent this year, and ease the upward pressure on wages.
The C.U. Outlook, like other forecasts, has tended to do best when the economy was in a steady growth pattern, as it has been in recent years. But it has struggled to capture turning points.
A September forecast from U.S. Bank regional economist Tucker Hart Adams calls for a national recession by the second half of 2007 and 1.4 percent job growth in the state next year.
Xcel Energy economist Tim Sheesley dissented from the consensus, arguing that a recession remains a very real possibility next year.
The Fed is willing to pay for price stability in a recession, he said of the Federal Reserve s fight against inflation.
Staff writer Aldo Svaldi can be reached at 303-954-1410 or asvaldi@denverpost.com.
