They’re at it again.
The opponents of Referendum C, thwarted by the voters and frustrated by the facts, are crafting a new campaign of half-truths and flat-out falsehoods. One year after Coloradans approved an economic recovery plan, its critics still can’t take “yes” for an answer.
The president of the Independence Institute says state officials deliberately misstated the cost of the plan. “The people got hoodwinked,” fumes an El Paso County commissioner.
Not quite, gentlemen. The people just didn’t happen to agree with you.
In November 2005, voters were asked to invest some of their hard-earned dollars in the future of Colorado: to shore up our schools and colleges, fix our roads and bridges, and provide health care for our poorest and most disabled residents. A majority said “yes.”
This year, the legislature passed and the governor signed a budget that keeps faith with the voters. Referendum C enabled us to balance the books without raising tax rates, raiding cash funds, or resorting to accounting tricks. As former Sen. Hank Brown put it, it was a case of “promises made, promises kept.”
So what’s changed? The economic forecast, for one thing. In September 2005, legislative economists expected the state to collect approximately $47.1 billion over the following five years. Last week, they revised their estimate; the new forecast is $49.8 billion.
The increase – just under 6 percent – would produce a big change in the Referendum C account. But most of the extra dollars, if they come in, would flow to transportation and capital construction (a constitutional cap limits growth in the rest of the state budget). And Colorado’s General Fund will still be smaller, in real dollars per capita, at the end of the decade than it was at the beginning.
The truth is, economic forecasts are just that: forecasts. No one actually knows what the economy will do next year, much less in 2010. Tucker Hart Adams, a leading regional economist, predicts a recession in 2007. If she’s right, today’s numbers will be wrong; the five- year total could head south.
The proponents of Referendum C acknowledged as much. The ballot measure itself did not contain a dollar amount. Instead, it asked, “Shall the state be authorized to retain and spend all state revenues … for the next five fiscal years?” As the legislative ballot guide noted, “The exact amount of the spending increase could be higher or lower, depending on the economy and the amount of money collected.”
The opponents, in contrast, demonstrated no such regard for the truth. They repeatedly distorted statistics, mismatching figures and misleading audiences. Their television advertisements attempted to fool viewers into thinking they would be forfeiting their income-tax refunds. Fortunately, most Coloradans didn’t fall for that trick.
Now the same suspects are suggesting that the General Assembly, its nonpartisan staff, and the Owens administration conspired to manipulate the estimates. They accuse reputable economists of cooking the books. These accusations are groundless and irresponsible.
Here are the facts:
Between 2001 and 2003, Colorado lost more than 100,000 jobs and $1.1 billion in state revenue. Without Referendum C, we would have been forced to cut another $700 million from education, health care, and other core services. And we would have had very little money left to repair our crumbling transportation system.
The good news is that our economy is recovering. More people are working. That means more revenue is available to meet the demands of our growing state.
Thanks to Referendum C, 2,000 more at-risk children can attend preschool. An additional 50,000 Coloradans can get preventive health care. And 124,000 college students can pursue higher education at a lower cost than they would otherwise have faced.
Most states, just like most prudent households, try to set aside enough money to weather a storm. Colorado should, too. A bipartisan proposal for a rainy-day fund made it halfway through the General Assembly this year. The incoming legislature should follow through.
In the meantime, Coloradans can take comfort in the knowledge that our economy is poised to regain much of the ground it lost during the last recession. We can strengthen our workforce, our infrastructure and our reserves. That’s cause for celebration, not despair.
Rep. Andrew Romanoff, D-Denver, is speaker of the Colorado House. Sen. Steve Johnson, R-Loveland, is on the Joint Budget Committee.
