“Silly” is one of the words used most often to describe Saturday’s GOP presidential Iowa Straw Poll, by definition more spectacle than substance.
But this year, it may also be termed unpredictable.
In a fundraiser for the state GOP, voters are given tickets, bused in to Ames, wined, dined and entertained – all on the candidate’s dime. In return, they are expected to vote for their respective sugar-candidate.
Usually, there are no surprises, and the results mean more to pundits than to voters nationwide.
But at a time when at least one national poll’s front-runner is “none of the above,” and three of the top four contenders are skipping the event, there is a chance something unanticipated could happen, political observers say.
“What happens if there’s a surprise? It’s possible,” said Tony Fabrizio, a Republican strategist and pollster. “The unexpected is the story.”
One thing about the poll is all but certain: Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will win. His organization has spent months and millions of dollars to use the straw poll as a means to energize his campaign.
After that, it gets interesting.
For starters, U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado could finish second or third, indicating that stopping illegal immigration – his primary, if not sole, issue – is more important to Iowa Republicans than currently imagined. And if he doesn’t, there is a chance that the most conservative candidate in the field, U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, will, giving evangelicals hope of finding a nominee they can support.
Also intriguing is that the names of the three candidates sitting out the poll – Arizona Sen. John McCain, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York City – still appear on the ballot. One might end up in the top three or four, giving that candidate a chance to trumpet finishing strong without trying.
“That’s the funny thing. Almost anything can happen,” said Dennis Goldford, a political-science professor at Drake University in Des Moines.
The GOP has held an Iowa straw poll in every competitive presidential cycle since 1979. No candidate who has skipped it has won the January caucus.
The state GOP predicts a turnout of about 40,000 people at the event – tickets are going for $35 apiece – with roughly 24,000 Iowans casting votes.
There is some question, however, about whether turnout will be as high as the party expects.
“There is a general feeling here that Republicans are not nearly as excited as Democrats,” said University of Iowa political scientist David Redlawsk, noting that Democrats are generally drawing larger crowds at campaign events in the state. “If people don’t show up, it may be a further signal that Republicans are not satisfied with their choices.”
Also vying for the top spots are former Govs. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Tommy Thomp son of Wisconsin and U.S. Reps. Duncan Hunter of California and Ron Paul of Texas.
Many in the group have said they need to do well in Ames to continue their campaigns.
Social conservatives Brownback and Huckabee have focused on reaching out to conservative Christian voters and trying to siphon some of their support away from Romney.
Tancredo has continued to focus on stopping illegal immigration, a popular position among Republicans. But it’s unclear whether a single issue is enough to push him toward the top.
While the second-place finisher should get a bump in attention and fundraising, the longer-term impact is questionable.
“If it’s Tancredo or Huckabee, they may generate some interest, but neither has made many inroads outside of Iowa,” Redlawsk said. “Brownback, however, might cause the cultural conservatives – who aren’t very happy with their choices at the moment – to feel they have a candidate.”
Staff writer Karen E. Crummy can be reached at 303-954-1594 or kcrummy@denverpost.com.
