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Alec Baldwin as Jack
Alec Baldwin as Jack
Joanne Ostrow of The Denver Post.
PUBLISHED: | UPDATED:
Getting your player ready...

As long as Alec Baldwin wins the Emmy as lead actor in a comedy series for his brilliant depiction of a self-absorbed network suit in “30 Rock,” I’ll be happy.

There’s no logic to the awards, but you can feel in your bones when Emmy justice is served. Take Baldwin: funnier than Steve Carell (“The Office”), Ricky Gervais (“Extras”), Charlie Sheen (“Two and a Half Men”) and Tony Shaloub (“Monk”). His is the most precisely calibrated performance; he is perfectly matched to the role of Jack Donaghy.

Now then, if Baldwin wins, if Ryan Seacrest keeps out of the way as host, and assuming “Boston Legal” stays in the background while “The Sopranos” prevails as the year’s most honored nominee, it should be a tolerable telecast.

Can we agree that the choice of Seacrest to emcee says more about the industry’s deference to ratings power than it does about any desire to find a talent who might galvanize the show? If the “American Idol” host bears in mind that he’s not an inspired entertainer but an incredibly lucky announcer, perhaps he won’t be too big an embarrassment.

The 59th Primetime Emmy Awards telecast, at 7 tonight on KDVR-Channel 31, has a veteran director at the helm rather than the upstarts who initially promised to jazz up the proceedings. “American Idol” executive producers Nigel Lythgoe and Ken Warwick withdrew from Emmy producer duty in May citing a heavy workload; Ken Ehrlich, who has produced endless award shows, stepped up. Brace for big production numbers.

Fox is hyping its eco-friendly, or “green,” approach to the event, from solar panels to a red carpet made of recycled plastic bottles. (The Academy nixed the network’s plan to use a green carpet instead. Global warming or not, some things are still sacred.)

At this point, it’s probably overkill to lament (again) the snub Emmy voters gave HBO’s “The Wire,” NBC’s “Friday Night Lights,” ABC’s “Lost” and FX’s “The Shield.” But what are critics for if not Emmy outrage?

Predicting what’s in those envelopes is ever-risky, but here we go.

The nominees for best drama – “Grey’s Anatomy,” “Heroes,” “House,” “Boston Legal” and “The Sopranos” – offer no contest. For smart but not showy writing, great casting, fine acting and depth of characters, it’s “The Sopranos,” no matter what you thought of the ending. (Remember, each show submits six episodes, divided and distributed randomly to voters.) With 15 nominations, the series stands to be the evening’s big winner, a fitting coda to its run.

“The Sopranos” may own the headline, but “30 Rock,” “The Office” and “Ugly Betty” also could score multiple wins, notable in a season short on comedy buzz.

In the best-comedy race, the nominees are “Entourage,” “The Office,” “30 Rock,” “Two and a Half Men” and “Ugly Betty.” I’m rooting for “30 Rock” while hoping America Ferrera (“Ugly Betty”) takes the prize for best comedic actress. “The Office” won last year. The idea that “Two and a Half Men” is even in contention is funnier than the show.

If Hugh Laurie takes home a statuette as best drama actor, I’ll not only be happy but will also likely enjoy an articulate and funny acceptance speech. He’ll have to beat James Gandolfini (“Sopranos”), not to mention Denis Leary (“Rescue Me”), Keifer Sutherland (“24”) and James Spader (“Boston Legal”), and he should. Gandolfini may be the sentimental choice, but “The Sopranos” was ultimately an ensemble piece; “House” is regularly a tour de force performance by Laurie.

Minnie Driver and Kyra Sedgwick will be the ones to watch when the award for best actress in a drama is called. Edie Falco already has been feted for her role on “The Sopranos,” Sally Field is terrific on “Brothers and Sisters” but she has Oscars and Emmys stacked up at home. Patricia Arquette of “Medium” and Mariska Hargitay of “Law & Order: SVU” are afterthoughts. Given that Englishwoman Driver does a better Southern American accent on “The Riches” than Sedgwick does on “The Closer,” Driver deserves the nod.

In the category of best supporting actress in a drama, Chandra Wilson of “Grey’s Anatomy” deserves the prize. Her character is the soul of that silly, sudsy series. But the “Sopranos”‘ Aida Turturro and Lorraine Bracco, along with “Grey’s” Sandra Oh and Katherine Heigl, and Rachel Griffiths of “Brothers and Sisters” make this a competitive field.

Advance critical opinion suggests the supporting-dramatic-actor award is likely to go to Michael Imperioli for his portrayal of the self-destructive, long-suffering Christopher, nephew of Tony Soprano. I would be equally pleased to see Terry O’Quinn of “Lost” pick up the trophy for his role as the mysterious and physically tortured John Locke. Michael Emerson of “Lost,” T.R. Knight of “Grey’s,” Masi Oka of “Heroes” and William Shatner of “Boston Legal” round out the category.

No question Helen Mirren should nab the award for miniseries actress for “Prime Suspect: The Final Act.” That miniseries should also take the award as the year’s best of a dwindling lot.

Aaron Sorkin’s “Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip” has endured many slights, but John Goodman should triumph as guest actor in a drama for his “Studio 60” portrayal of a small-town judge. Guest actress Kate Burton deserves to win for her affecting performance as Meredith’s Alzheimer’s-afflicted mother on “Grey’s Anatomy.”

Jeremy Piven’s scene-stealing as the ruthless Hollywood shark Ari Gold on “Entourage” deserves to be the popular choice for supporting comedy actor.

By all rights Vanessa Williams should take home the Emmy for best supporting comedy actress for her scheming diva Wilhelmina on “Ugly Betty.” Ditto Judith Light for her guest appearances on “Ugly Betty.”

A consolation: If Seacrest is really awful, we’ll have another chance to use him as a punch line when he hosts the halftime show at February’s Super Bowl.

TV critic Joanne Ostrow can be reached at 303-954-1830 or jostrow@denverpost.com.

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