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A Havana man takes in a cigar and a newspaper Friday. Raul Castro is expected to become president, but Vice President Carlos Lage may have some support.
A Havana man takes in a cigar and a newspaper Friday. Raul Castro is expected to become president, but Vice President Carlos Lage may have some support.
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HAVANA — They are called “Raulistas” — top military men who manage much of Cuba’s economy and populate the upper reaches of power. Today, these men will probably ensure that Raul Castro not only succeeds his brother Fidel as president but remains in firm control.

Having served in Raul Castro’s Defense Ministry for decades, Cuba’s active and retired military leaders oversee key economic endeavors, from farming to tourism, that bring in hard currency.

Five active generals sit on the Communist Party’s powerful 21-member Politburo, including two who run the important interior and sugar ministries.

While loyal first to Fidel Castro, many of these men have particularly close friendships with the younger brother. And they are likely to help Raul Castro consolidate power if he is named president today after the ailing 81-year-old Fidel’s resignation last week.

The Revolutionary Armed Forces are one of the island’s strongest and most respected institutions, and with the top generals backing him, Raul is unlikely to face problems from the military at large — a sector that in many countries can be the most dangerous for a new government.

By all accounts, Raul Castro is a highly organized manager with a pragmatic business sense that could lead him to allow openings in Cuba’s economy.

He hinted as much in a speech last year, saying some “structural changes” were needed.

He is known as a warm and jocular man who dotes almost as much on his troops as he does on his family but also has proved to be tough.

In 1959, in the first months after the revolution, he and Ernesto “Che” Guevara oversaw the executions of officials from the deposed government of dictator Fulgencio Batista.

Crucial to Raul’s success will be “the extent to which Raul and the generals are able to uphold loyalty to the chain of command,” former CIA analyst Brian Latell wrote in “After Fidel,” his recent book about the Castro brothers. “The odds of that will be much in their favor, in the beginning at least.”

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