Prediction time!
Yes, the Colorado primary is Tuesday, which will determine the fate of nations for generations to come.
Who can forget Colorado’s pivotal role on the national stage in 1992, when Jerry Brown won our presidential primary and went on to become mayor of Oakland, creating the maxim: “As Colorado goes, so goes nothing!”
Of course, we don’t do presidential primaries any more, because some idiot decided we’d have more clout if we went back to a caucus system where a few of us gather on a date most of us can’t remember at a place most of us can’t find to listen to party hacks drone on for hours before we vote for people we’ve never heard of to go to the next level and repeat the farce on behalf of our chosen presidential standard bearer.
Democrats navigated that swamp to pick a winner in Barack Obama. Colorado Republicans rose to the challenge of the baroque and baroken caucus system by voting overwhelmingly for Mitt Romney, confirming the maxim: “As Colorado goes, oh, never mind.”
Still, Tuesday’s primaries will almost certainly decide the winner of three congressional seats, since Republicans have huge majorities in the suburban 6th District and the 5th District based on El Paso County.
Democrats have a much smaller edge in the 2nd Congressional District, where Eldorado Springs conservative U.S. Rep. Mark Udall is leaving to run for the U.S. Senate against Boulder liberal Dick Wadhams and whatever sock puppet he’s manipulating these days. But 2nd District Republicans, mired in a losing streak, settled for signing free agent Scott Starin to a suicide-squad candidacy this year.
When it comes to predictions, my reputation was made in 1912 when I not only bet on the Titanic, I gave six points to the iceberg. In that spirit, I think former state Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald will edge entrepreneur Jared Polis in the 2nd.
Polis has spent a staggering $5 million of his own money on this race, but the key to winning a primary is getting out the vote. Fitz-Gerald is Colorado labor’s choice and union organizers excel at turning out their troops in Democratic primaries.
It gets better for Joan. Her own organization is led by smart, tough Mary Alice Mandarich. She’s a Pueblo girl and the name “Pueblo” on a politician means what “sterling” means on silver.
Besides superior organization, multi-candidate primaries are often won by the simple question: “Who splits whose vote?”
That’s where environmentalist Will Shafroth, running third in this race, comes in. Like Polis, he’s from Boulder — splitting that base. And two men running against one woman usually means the best woman wins.
After that, predictions are easy. In the 5th, incumbent Republican Rep. Doug Lamborn gets about 45 percent while two of the five men he defeated in 2006, Jeff Crank and Bentley Rayburn, split the anti-Lamborn vote. I’d guess Rayburn finishes second with 30 percent, but who cares? Lamborn, who might have lost head to head against either man, clearly wins against a divided opposition.
In the 6th, we see Wil Armstrong, son of one of the state’s most successful professional politicians, running for the Republican nomination on the theme that voters shouldn’t trust professional politicians.
Among Republicans, this is a good year for veterans. Mike Coffman, a Marine combat veteran of the Gulf War who also later volunteered for a tour in Iraq, wins this one by 10 points.
The spirited but underfinanced Ted Harvey campaign wins Miss Congeniality while another Marine veteran, Steve Ward, serves as rear guard.
One last prediction: Next Feb. 1, the Broncos win the Super Bowl after safety John Lynch intercepts a Tony Romo pass and returns it to the Dallas 40-yard line. Jason Elam kicks a 57-yard field goal to give Denver a 31-30 win over the Cowboys.
Bob Ewegen (bewegen@denverpost.com) is deputy editorial page editor of The Denver Post.
