GREELEY, Colo.—There’s a jubilant mood among Democrats waiting to hear from Betsy Markey, their candidate to knock off a Republican incumbent and take Colorado’s 4th District congressional seat out of GOP hands for the first time in more than three decades.
When Markey arrives with popular Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar, a cheer goes up as if the race is won.
Democrats are feeling good these days in Colorado. Polls indicate Barack Obama could win the state that voted twice for President Bush. Democrats also appear to have a lead in a contest for an open Senate seat left by a retiring Republican.
Add a pickup by Markey in the 4th District, held by conservative Rep. Marilyn Musgrave since 2003, and Democrats are within striking distance of having a 7-2 advantage in Colorado’s congressional delegation. It would be a dramatic turnaround in a state whose delegation to Washington included just two Democrats a decade ago.
“We need a change, and everyone’s seeing it,” said a smiling Ramona Martinez, 69, a retired social worker who brings a Sharpie pen to this rally and asks Markey and Salazar to autograph her T-shirt.
Democrats are looking for:
— Rep. Mark Udall to beat former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer in the contest to replace retiring Republican Sen. Wayne Allard. Polls for weeks have indicated Udall has a double-digit lead despite GOP attempts to tag the jeans-and-fleece-wearing former mountain guide as too liberal. A Denver Post poll released Sunday only showed him with a four point lead. A Udall win would put both Colorado senatorial seats in Democratic hands for the first time in 30 years.
— Online businessman Jared Polis to replace Udall in a left-leaning 2nd Congressional district that includes the University of Colorado. Polis, a heavy favorite over Scott Starin, an engineer, would become the first openly gay non-incumbent elected to Congress.
— Markey to defeat Musgrave, a three-term incumbent who sponsored President Bush’s failed attempt to amend the federal constitution to ban gay marriage. Democrats believe she is vulnerable because of changing demographics in the sprawling northern and eastern Colorado district and the nation’s turn away from the GOP.
— Three incumbent Democratic House members to cruise to easy re-election against poorly funded GOP challengers: Diana DeGette, Ed Perlmutter and Ken Salazar.
Of course, Democrats have just one hurdle left: the actual elections. The glowing poll numbers and exuberant mood among party members have some top Democrats openly fretting about overconfidence.
“People are beginning to get euphoric about these poll numbers. But if the turnout doesn’t come in like we’re hoping, we could be disappointed,” said DeGette of Denver who was one of the two Colorado Democrats in Congress in the mid-90s.
“A big win for Democrats in this state is 2 or 3 points. Anybody who thinks we’re going to roll up these huge margins is going to be mistaken.”
Even the head of the state Democratic party, Pat Waak, admits that when she hears reports that Democrats will roll up big wins in Colorado, “I kind of half hold my breath.”
“We’ve seen these huge, humongous numbers … but do those really translate into votes? I think that is the burden on us now: Do those people get out and vote?”
Her counterpart in the GOP, Dick Wadhams, is also running Schaffer’s campaign and says Republicans know how to turn out voters. Asked about prospects in the Senate contest, Wadhams said the GOP still has a fighting chance of holding the seat. “This race is not put away,” he said. “This race is wide open.”
Back in Greeley, Markey seems reluctant to speculate on her chances. She asks the crowd if they voted early. Most raise their hands, but Markey is frank and makes it clear she’ll need heavy Democratic turnout to take the seat.
“We’ve got a lot of work to do,” she said. “Tell your friends, if they’re voting early, they need to get that ballot in.”
It’s far from certain, both camps say, whether Markey can oust Musgrave.
The incumbent’s conservatism, especially on social issues, has attracted national opponents. Just last week the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chipped in more than $300,000 for advertising for Markey.
But Musgrave has faced vigorous challenges from the Democrats before and survived. She has distanced herself from President Bush in recent months, most notably when she opposed this fall’s $700 billion financial bailout package aimed at opening the nation’s credit markets.
Musgrave eschews the press and talks directly to voters, finishing this re-election campaign with four days of visits to Wal-Mart stores across a district roughly the size of South Carolina. Even some who don’t like Musgrave credit her for turning out voters to hang on to the seat.
“I don’t think she’ll lose. She’s got a lot of conservatives on her side,” said Amy Smart, 24, an education student at the University of Northern Colorado.
Salazar, who hired Markey to run constituent services for him in the district before she ran for the seat, said Democratic insiders aren’t swaggering yet about Markey’s chances. Salazar said the turnout message has to come loud and strong from the Democrats.
“Elections in Colorado are historically very tight,” he said. “This is going to be a nail-biter.”
