BEIRUT — Instead of extending an olive branch to President-elect Barack Obama, who says he is open to talks with Iran, that nation’s military officials Wednesday delivered what could be interpreted as a sobering message to America.
Leaders of the armed forces issued a notice warning U.S. forces that any violation of Iranian airspace will be met with force.
“It has been observed that helicopters of the U.S. Army were flying a short distance from the Iran-Iraq border,” said a statement issued by officials at Iran’s military headquarters. “Iran’s armed forces will forcefully respond to any attempts to violate the Islamic Republic of Iran’s airspace.”
The notice likely stemmed from fears that U.S. commandos might stage an operation inside Iran like the recent American incursion from Iraq into Syria. But it also represents what some analysts consider a desire by hard-line political factions in Iran to continue the threat of confrontation between the two countries even as Obama may represent a chance for diplomacy.
“The radicals aren’t happy about Obama’s victory,” said Saeed Laylaz, a Tehran analyst and newspaper editor often critical of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government. “To the radicals, this change is not to their advantage.”
Thorny issue for Obama
With its ambitions of becoming a regional superpower and its drive toward mastering sensitive nuclear technology, Iran stands as one of Obama’s thorniest foreign policy issues. Its Byzantine domestic political squabbles often determine the tone and direction of its foreign affairs.
Iranian officials outside the military cautiously welcomed Obama’s election as a repudiation of the Bush administration.
“The American people have to change their policies in order to get rid of the quagmire made by President Bush for them,” Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel, a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said in comments quoted by the official Islamic Republic News Agency. “The next U.S. president should abandon the course taken by President Bush so far.”
Obama has advocated peaceful negotiation as a way to address stark disagreements between Iran and the U.S., and Vice President-elect Joe Biden once threatened to push for impeachment of Bush if he bombed Iran. Still, Iran feels the Obama team represents potential new threats to its country.
“As dangerous as Bush”
While Bush’s polarizing persona alienated some countries who do business with Iran, a unifying figure like Obama may help convince fence-sitters such as India, China, Turkey, Malaysia and Russia to synchronize their Iranian policies with the U.S.
“There is the thought that Obama could be as dangerous as Bush, but in a different way,” said Abolfazl Amouei, a conservative-leaning Tehran political scientist at Imam Sadeq University. “In Iran, Democrats don’t have a good reputation. They were the first ones who started the sanctions under President Clinton.”
Many Iranians are eager to see how Obama moves forward from pre-election comments indicating that he would meet unconditionally with Iranian leaders and defend Israel at all costs.
“As time has gone by, Obama has begun to sound more and more like (John) McCain, and the rhetoric of demonization has increased during the campaign,” said Seyed Mohammad Marandi, head of the North American studies department at the University of Tehran. “We have to really see if Obama is truly serious about change or if the change is a tactic or a change in attitude.”
