Success came first, then survival. Denver’s Mike Shanahan and Carolina’s John Fox are still around to coach against each other today because their early Super Bowl appearances spurred enough ownership trust to carry them through lean periods.
“If you don’t have the early success and you start to struggle, the questions come out,” said former Pittsburgh coach Bill Cowher, whose early success enabled him to get through a three-year playoff drought that preceded a Super Bowl title. “Is the job too big for the individual? Is he the right person? Is the team responding?
“But if you’re able to win early, then you can survive that down cycle that inevitably is going to come. Mike had to go through transition. John had to suffer through some injury.”
The Broncos now are one victory, or one San Diego loss, away from returning to the playoffs after a drought that began when Shanahan made the controversial and painstaking move to tear apart his 2005 team that lost the AFC championship game at home.
“You’ve got to make decisions when to rebuild,” Shanahan said. “You’ve got to make a decision when to get a new quarterback, when you go in a different direction relative to age. If you’ve been through it before, it’s not as big a deal as people might think.”
Fox guided Carolina to the Super Bowl in his second season, 2003, and got the Panthers to the NFC championship game in 2005. But after consecutive seasons missing the playoffs, there was widespread speculation that he was in serious trouble heading into this season. Review the 2008 preseason “hot seat” coaching lists and Fox was a consensus choice for the top five.
“You’re on the hot seat every week in this league,” Fox said. “That hot seat is something for you guys to talk about. But the way we view it, the seat can’t get any hotter than we make it.”
The Panthers, like the Broncos, have rebounded. Carolina leads the NFC South at 10-3 and needs one more win to all but assure itself of making the playoffs.
Shanahan seemed to be in trouble entering the fourth quarter of the Broncos’ ninth game this season, at Cleveland. The Browns led 23-13, and Denver was seemingly on the verge of collapse, having lost four of five and at the same time being decimated by injuries. The Broncos were wiped out at tailback and linebacker, and cornerback Champ Bailey was down.
Critics wondered if the game was passing Shanahan by. He has won only one playoff game in nine years. His Broncos missed the playoffs the previous two seasons.
“It was laughable,” said NFL analyst Cris Collinsworth, who worked the Broncos-Browns game. “I was saying, ‘This team is done.’ I was already saying, ‘San Diego is a lock to win this division. There’s no way the Broncos can hold onto it.’ ”
From those depths, Shanahan’s Broncos have rallied. They defeated Cleveland and now, at 8-5, lead an otherwise weak AFC West by three games with three to go. They are on the verge of returning to the playoffs for the first time since Shanahan dumped quarterback Jake Plummer for Jay Cutler with five games remaining in 2006.
“Some people said, ‘Why switch quarterbacks when you’re 7-4?’ ” Shanahan said. “Would we have been in the playoffs?”
Most likely. Had the Broncos stuck with the veteran Plummer and not switched to the kid, Cutler, they probably would have made the playoffs in 2006. Would the Broncos have won the Super Bowl? Unless Plummer could have outplayed Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, probably not.
“People like yourself don’t bring that up. All they say is, ‘You didn’t make the playoffs for two years,’ ” Shanahan said. “What you’ve got to do is make the decisions on what gives you the best chance to win. And when I talk about win, I’m talking about winning the Super Bowl.”
The hot seat has been chilled. It no longer bakes the office chairs of Fox and Shanahan, who were given time to work out of a two-year down period.
“I think the way you do that is you have a good owner,” said John Madden, a Hall of Fame coach and NFL analyst. “An owner that knows once he gets a good head coach and you really believe in him, you just stay with him. They’re not going to win every year. You know that.
“But when you’ve had a bad year you don’t say they’ve lost it. You don’t say they’ve gotten stupid. You don’t say you’re going to fire him and they have to win this game. You just kind of stay with them.”
In the week leading up to the Browns’ game, The Denver Post published two stories focusing on Shanahan’s job security. Broncos owner Pat Bowlen declined to be interviewed for each.
To Cowher, Bowlen spoke volumes.
“As coaches, we’re all OK with criticism,” Cowher said. “We understand it’s part of the deal. But with both these guys, you never heard anything come from their owners. You never heard them waver with their support. Where in other places, you hear owners come out and give a vote of confidence.
“Sometimes saying nothing is the best thing in the world. Because the coach is fine. These coaches have won. They know what it takes to be successful so they can handle the tough times. When you know there’s support from the owner, the players realize, win or lose, this is the guy.”
Mike Klis: 303-954-1055 or mklis@denverpost.com
Reward of survival
This has been a season of unknown first-year coaches such as Mike Smith, John Harbaugh and Tony Sparano turning around teams. And it’s been a season of veteran coaches regaining previous success. A look at six longtime coaches who have survived downturns:
Jeff Fisher, Titans
Early success: 1999 AFC champions
Low point: 9-23 in 2004-05 seasons
2008: NFL-best 12-1
Tom Coughlin, Giants
Early success: 36-12 in 1997-99 seasons
Low point: 6-10 in 2004
2008: Defending Super Bowl champions
John Fox, Panthers
Early success: 2003 NFC champions
Low point: 15-17 in 2006-07 seasons
2008: Lead NFC South
Mike Shanahan, Broncos
Early success: 1997, ’98 Super Bowl champions
Low point: 16-16 in 2006-07 seasons
2008: Lead AFC West
Andy Reid, Eagles
Early success: 59-21 in 2000-04
Low point: 6-10 in 2005 season
2008: 7-5-1
Jon Gruden, Buccaneers
Early success: 2002 Super Bowl champions
Low point: 4-12 in 2006 season
2008: 9-4
