If you look at the economy with the right kind of eyes — squint with us, will you? — there are some encouraging signs to suggest better days aren’t far away.
In a survey released this week, more than 90 percent of economists predicted the recession we’ve endured since December 2007 will likely run its course by the end of this year. Some 74 percent of them said the recession would end in the third quarter, according to the National Association for Business Economists (NABE) report.
However, most Americans will be celebrating its demise with champagne from the discount aisle, and leave the high-end stuff from the go-go days to gather dust — meaning there will be a “new normal” in terms of how we spend and save our money.
The economists predicted very small growth margins — like 0.7 percent in the third quarter and 1.8 percent in the fourth — and a continued, though small, rise in unemployment.
But even here there is some good news.
Before the collapse, we were spending far too much on credit cards, saving little and basing our futures on completely unrealistic expectations about booming housing markets.
The NABE report said that Americans’ rate of personal saving was up to 4.2 percent in March.
The worst, it seems, is behind us, America. So pop the Andre champagne and celebrate — at least a little.
Colorado also had a glimmer of good economic news this past week with the announcement that DaVita, a Fortune 500 company, would relocate its headquarters here.
A new state law aimed at attracting new jobs by providing tax breaks to out-of-state companies that expand here with at least 20 employees is credited with landing the 250 DaVita executives. The medical services company should help create jobs well beyond its offices.
Before the Andre goes flat, we must acknowledge that all is not completely rosy.
IRS collections were 34 percent lower in April than they were a year ago. And the first rounds of federal money meant to stimulate the economy aren’t making much of a presence in the hardest-hit states.
An analysis of spending contracts by USA Today found that in Michigan, where unemployment is high, only $2 million in stimulus money has been spent — about 21 cents per person.
The first contracts have amounted to about $7.42 per person spent in the eight states that have unemployment rates higher than 10 percent, the newspaper found. Yet in North Dakota, which has the lowest jobless rates, per person spending was $26.
Still, as consumer confidence begins to rebound, so will the economy. It’s been too long of a slog, but it seems we’re nearing the end.
