The decline in Denver retail sales-tax collections is slowing, a mild indicator that businesses here — and consumers — might be emerging from the economic slowdown.
The city Wednesday reported sales-and-use tax collections for August were down 9.8 percent from the same month in 2008, the best showing in the month-to-month comparison this year.
The city has collected nearly $226.7 million in sales-and-use tax this year, still 12.7 percent lower than the same eight months of last year.
Nevertheless, the fact that collections are starting to trend upward is a good sign that the economy might be thawing, economists say, though some still maintain a cautious optimism.
“We probably should wait a couple months to see,” Mayor John Hickenlooper said. “But I expect by the end of the year we should see significant improvement.”
Citing conversations with local businessmen who say they “feel a little better and customers are beginning to come back,” Hickenlooper said it’s not a stretch to believe sales-tax revenues could improve more by December.
“My guess is we should be at zero difference,” he said.
When last year’s Democratic National Convention is factored into the formula, Denver might actually be doing better than expected.
“With that in mind, the numbers now might even be stronger,” said Patricia Silverstein, president of Development Research Partners, an economic consultant company in Littleton.
“We’re starting to see some slowdown in the declines, which is much needed since we’ve been through a lot of pain,” Silverstein said. “But the negative trends show we’re not out of the woods yet.”
Some of the uptick might be the result of automobile sales, which surged nationally over the summer months. Denver’s data doesn’t indicate the source of the revenue.
The data comes despite a consistent drop in statewide retail sales. Comparing retail sales this past June to June 2008 — the most recent available from the Colorado Department of Revenue — Western Slope counties averaged a 21.1 percent decline and Eastern Plains counties saw a 19.4 percent drop. The decline among Front Range counties was 16.7 percent for the same period.
David Migoya: 303-954-1506 or dmigoya@denverpost.com
