With 2009 officially in the rearview mirror, Pete Flint, chief executive of the real estate website Trulia, offers the following predictions:
• We will continue to see lots of volatility in the housing market through 2010.
• Three major factors will contribute to the dropoff in the second half of the year: Government intervention will disappear, shadow inventory will hit the market and mortgage rates will rise.
• The tax credit has not created new demand, only pushed demand forward to the beginning of 2010.
• When the tax credit runs out, interest rates creep up and more inventory hits the market, we can expect prices to drop once again.
• Sales volume will be flat versus 2009 (5 million to 5.5 million homes).
• Prices will drop another 5 percent to 10 percent.
• Inventory levels will creep back up.
• Mortgage rates move back into the range of 6 percent.
Margaret Jackson, The Denver Post
