Somebody asked me the other day about our governor’s race, and with my talent for bad predictions, I said Bill Ritter would win re-election fairly easily, about 55-45, not because Coloradans were all that thrilled with him, but because the Republican campaign would derail.
The GOP train wreck looked inevitable, given the party’s recent history. Go back to 2003, when almost every Republican above the level of county assembly delegate supported Referendum A, the $2 billion bond issue for water projects to be announced in due time. That pig in a poke was defeated by a 2-1 margin statewide; it didn’t pass in a single county. So much for the GOP having its fingers anywhere near the pulse of the public.
Now to 2004, when the GOP hierarchy first anointed Bob Schaffer, former 4th Congressional District representative, as the preferred candidate for the U.S. Senate seat held by Ben Campbell (first elected as a Democrat in 1992, and re-elected as a Republican in 1998), who was stepping down.
Then, as Democrats generally united behind Attorney General Ken Salazar (the only Democrat holding statewide office at the time), the Republican movers and shakers recruited beer baron Pete Coors, apparently because he had more mainstream appeal than a forthright conservative like Schaffer.
Except Coors, who had never run for public office before, wasn’t much on the campaign stump. Schaffer cleaned his clock in the primary debates, but the GOP still went with Coors — and lost.
Proceed to 2006. Now wary of primaries, the Republican honchos moved heaven and earth to prevent a gubernatorial primary between Bob Beauprez and Marc Holtzman. They succeeded, and “Both Ways Bob” ran one of the most inept campaigns in memory. I voted for Ritter, not because I liked his work as Denver’s district attorney, but mostly due to the “not Bob Beauprez” factor.
Now to 2008. This time, the GOP didn’t shaft Schaffer. But all we heard in the campaign was that his opponent, Mark Udall, was a “Boulder liberal,” even though he didn’t live in Boulder. The Republicans managed to shoot themselves in the foot again by trying to make that the defining issue.
So even if Ritter isn’t polling all that well at the moment, I figured state GOP Chair Dick Wadhams would find a way to lose. Perhaps he’d attack “Ritter the Regulator” for chasing away all those drilling rigs (which actually decamped on account of low commodity prices). Beyond that, Coloradans generally like wildlife, clean air and safe water a lot more than they like oil companies. Those who feel otherwise can always move to Texas, after all.
Being governor can’t be much fun in the current economic climate. The state’s in no position to try anything new; it’s all about keeping the lights on and the doors open while finding a way to trim $500 million from this year’s spending and $1.5 billion from next year’s.
In other words, Ritter was dealt a hard hand, and he’s played it about as well as anyone could have. But every time a cutback is necessary, it’s going to alienate or offend some people, and that discontent adds up.
It would show in the polls until the serious campaigning started in the fall and the Republican candidate had to answer some specific questions about what he would cut, aside from the traditional “waste, fraud and abuse.” Ritter would pull ahead and win re-election.
Here are my revised predictions: Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper will be the Democratic nominee, and Andrew Romanoff will be his choice for lieutenant governor. Scott McInnis will want us to forget that he’s a 17th Street lawyer as he denounces the Evil Big City candidates and portrays himself as just an aw-shucks small-town boy from wholesome Glenwood Springs. And Dan Maes, the other Republican candidate, will be glad I spelled his name right this time.
Ed Quillen (ekquillen@gmail.com) of Salida is a frequent contributor to The Post.
