ATLANTA — If the U.S. swine- flu epidemic isn’t over, it certainly looks as if it is on its last legs.
Federal health officials are not ready to declare that the threat has passed and the outbreak has run its course, but they did report Friday that for the fourth week in a row, no states had widespread flu activity. U.S. cases have been declining since late October.
One U.S. expert said the epidemic has “one foot in the grave,” and there are many reasons to think there won’t be another wave later in the year.
For one thing, the virus has shown no signs of mutating. The vaccine against it is effective. And roughly half the population of the U.S. has some immunity because they were infected with it or got vaccinated.
The World Health Organization is witnessing an international decline as well and is discussing criteria for declaring the pandemic over. Britain this week shut down its swine-flu hotline.
“Clearly, the last four weeks have been one of the quietest January flu seasons I can remember in my career,” said Michael Osterholm, a prominent expert on global flu outbreaks with the University of Minnesota.
Since its emergence last April, swine flu has caused an estimated 15,200 deaths worldwide, mostly in the U.S. — a much lower number than initially feared.
Even so, experts have praised the actions of the U.S. and Mexican governments and scientists who quickly developed an effective vaccine.
Whether it will stay quiet for the rest of the winter is hard to say, but some experts are beginning to lean that way.
“If it’s not dead, it’s weakening fast. It’s got one foot in the grave,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a flu authority at Vanderbilt University.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released numbers Friday showing most states continued to have only occasional flu activity last week. However, only three states had zero reports, and a CDC official cautioned that swine flu is still around and is likely to keep infecting people for weeks or months to come.
“We don’t seem to be seeing the disappearance of this virus,” said the CDC’s Dr. Anne Schuchat.
Whether there will be another wave of swine flu — as was seen in the spring last year and again in the early fall — is a much harder question, she added.
