BAGHDAD — A secular coalition challenging the Iraqi prime minister in the country’s historic parliamentary elections has narrowly pulled ahead for the first time in the overall vote count, although it still trails in the crucial province-by-province count.
The Iraqiya coalition, led by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, seemed to be gaining momentum, taking a 9,000-vote lead nationwide, according to new totals released late Tuesday. But with about 20 percent of the votes still to be counted from the March 7 election, it was unclear whether that margin would give Allawi more seats in parliament, which will determine who will lead the government.
The news came as Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his State of Law coalition accused election officials of manipulating vote counts and called for a recount, a candidate from his bloc said.
It was the prime minister’s first challenge to the results, and his bloc drew a link between its accusations and Allawi, accusing some electoral commission staff of having allegiances to groups backing al-Maliki’s rival.
Iraq’s vote counting has been winding and chaotic, with ballot results being portioned out piecemeal by election officials and almost immediately subject to fraud accusations. The winner will be tasked with forming a government that will oversee the country as U.S. forces go home.
Crucially, with 79 percent of votes counted, al-Maliki’s coalition was still winning in seven of Iraq’s 18 provinces — including all-important Baghdad — compared with five for Allawi.
That could prove important since parliament seats are apportioned mainly by how well coalitions do in the provinces, not according to overall vote total.
Still, the momentum apparent in Allawi’s overall, nationwide lead could be troubling to the prime minister and his coalition, raising questions about how strong their lead is.
The new vote results did not alter the picture much for the religious Shiite Iraqi National Alliance and the main Kurdish coalition, which lead in three provinces each.
However, in the province of Tamim, Allawi was beating his main challenger, the Kurdish coalition, by only five votes. The province is home to the disputed city of Kirkuk, which is hotly contested among its Kurdish, Arab and Turkomen population.
Allawi, a secular Shiite, has drawn on considerable Sunni support, likely due to his nonsectarian stance and repeated condemnations of the influence of Iraq’s powerful Shiite neighbor, Iran. Al-Maliki has drawn on support in the Shiite south as well as in the capital.
Independent Iraqi observers and U.N. officials advising the election commission say they have seen no evidence of widespread fraud that could undermine the outcome, though some worry the slow count could fuel suspicion.
Others suspect al-Maliki’s complaints have less to do with fraud concerns and more to do with improving his position for the months of political wrangling likely to follow the release of official results.
No bloc is likely to win a majority, meaning the winning candidate will have to ally with rival blocs to form a government.
“Al-Maliki is not in control of the situation and the tighter the race, the more coalition building he will have to do once he likely comes out first,” said analyst Toby Dodge with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
