ORLANDO, Fla. — With considerable trepidation, the Broncos decided to go along with a revision to the NFL’s postseason overtime rules.
The rule change, which passed by a 28-4 vote Tuesday, means that if the playoff team with the first overtime possession kicks a field goal, the opposing team gets a possession with a chance to extend the game with a field goal or win it with a touchdown.
If the first possession results in a touchdown or a safety, the game ends. The new rule will not apply to regular-season games.
The NFL competition committee submitted the rule change out of concern that an increasing advantage had gone to the team that won the overtime coin flip — from a winning percentage of 46.8 prior to 1994, when the kickoff line was backed up from the 35-yard line to the 30, to 59.8 percent since that change.
“In years past, I’m not sure we did a good job of crystallizing the statistics and making sure people understood the problem,” said Rich McKay, who co-chairs the competition committee. “I think this year we did a little better job of explaining the statistics, showing the problem and then proposing a rule that is still football.”
Broncos owner Pat Bowlen voted for the change but would not comment on his decision. Broncos coach Josh McDaniels was leery of the measure when the subject was brought up early in the day, but he and several other coaches were on the golf course when the change was voted on by owners in the afternoon.
“It went from having little chance of passing, to when we got in the room and finished the discussion, the final vote was overwhelming in favor,” said Bill Polian, general manager of the Indianapolis Colts.
Some had dubbed the overtime change the Favre Rule because it took the Minnesota Vikings losing the NFC championship game in overtime, and quarterback Brett Favre never getting the ball, to spark momentum for the modification.
It is ironic, then, that Minnesota’s Zygi Wilf was one of four owners who voted against the change. Cincinnati, Buffalo and Baltimore also voted against it.
Football often leaves stats to the baseball geeks, but this is one time when the NFL made sabermetricians proud. Research by the competition committee determined it was the tremendous improvement in field-goal accuracy from greater distances and slightly better starting position that led to nearly 60 percent of overtimes being decided by the team winning the coin toss.
“There were plenty of people, myself included, on the committee who were not inclined to be in favor of this,” Polian said. “The so-called traditionalists, of which I’m proud to be one. But once you saw the statistics and go through the explanations, it became obvious we really needed to do something.”
Among the concerns the Broncos and others carried was the increased risk of injury with the extended playing time, and the issue of fairness.
Say Team A gets the kickoff and drives 70 yards to the opponents 7, where the drive stalls, fourth-and-3. And it kicks a field goal.
Now say the second-possession team is quarterbacked by Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. The defense holds them to fourth-and-10 at their own 10, but because they have nothing to lose, they go for it on fourth down, make it, and go on to win the game with a four-down advantage the other team doesn’t have.
In Game 5 of the regular season last year, the Broncos beat New England 20-17 on Matt Prater’s 41-yard field goal on their first possession. Imagine the Broncos then having to wait for the defense to stop Brady on four consecutive downs before claiming victory.
“I would say this — if it was an advantage to have that fourth down, then I want to see the team that wins the coin toss and elect to kick off,” McKay said. “I don’t think they will.”
Mike Klis: 303-954-1055 or mklis@denverpost.com
