WASHINGTON — Watching the polls to figure out who’s up this election season? Be careful. The poll may have a pro-Republican bias.
The ranks of Americans who use only cellphones have skyrocketed. Some public polls don’t survey them, however, and they miss a group of people who are more likely to vote Democratic, including the young, the poor, Latinos and African-Americans.
The nonpartisan Pew Research Center recently found that in four out of five national polls this year, polls that contact only those with land-line phones gave Republicans an edge of 4 to 6 percentage points over Democrats, compared with polls that included cellphones.
In the most recent poll, a survey of likely voters reached via land lines gave Republicans a 12-point edge, 53-41 percent. Polls that also called voters who only use cellphones found the Republican edge was 7 points, 50-43 percent.
“Cell-only adults are demographically and politically different than those who live in land- line households,” the Pew report said. “As a result, election polls that rely only on land-line samples may be biased.”
The challenge in measuring public opinion has grown as more Americans rely on cellphones. In four and half years, the percentage of Americans 18 and older who rely only on cellphones has skyrocketed from 9.6 percent to 22.9 percent, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.
