Slow and steady economic growth should allow Colorado to gain 10,100 jobs next year, predicts an annual economic forecast from the University of Colorado at Boulder Leeds School of Business.
The increase, however, will make only a small dent in reversing the nearly 140,000 jobs lost in the past two years. And it won’t be enough to match state population growth of 79,100 predicted in 2011.
“We would all like a more rapid recovery, especially in terms of jobs, but we’re just not going to see that yet,” said economist Richard Wobbekind, executive director of the school’s Business Research Division.
Improved employment opportunities will spur discouraged workers to rejoin the labor force, boosting the unemployment count from 218,100 this year to 238,100 next, according to the 2011 Colorado Business Economic Outlook, which was released Monday.
That will raise the state’s unemployment rate, already averaging 8.2 percent this year, to 8.8 percent in 2011.
Most sectors of the economy are likely to enjoy growth in 2011, except for construction, manufacturing, information and government, according to the forecast.
Professional and business services, which cover career fields such as architecture, corporate management and scientific research, are expected to add 7,000 jobs next year.
Education and health services are forecast to gain 3,300 jobs, while leisure and hospitality employers are seen boosting payrolls by 3,000 and the trade, transportation and utilities sector is seen adding 3,500 workers.
Agriculture and mining should also represent bright spots in the state economy because of higher commodity prices, said Patty Silverstein, president of Development Research Partners in Littleton.
Declining tax revenues are expected to trigger a net loss of 1,800 government jobs in Colorado, the first annual decline in two decades of record-keeping.
Local and federal governments will do most of the cutting. State government will add jobs in higher education as workers continue to retrain and students delay graduation.
Construction is likely to continue its severe decline, with 7,000 jobs lost. Work on the Anschutz Medical Campus in Aurora and the Conoco Phillips Campus in Louisville will provide some support.
Consolidation in the telecommunications and publishing industries is expected to put a lid on information-sector jobs.
How difficult has it been for Colorado?
“We will end 2010 with fewer jobs than in 2000,” Wobbekind said, despite the state’s adding more than 800,000 people in that time frame.
And any significant turmoil in the U.S. or global economy could cause the forecast to miss its mark, which was the case this year.
A year ago, economists putting together the forecast predicted the state would shed 3,200 jobs in 2010. They now estimate those losses will come in closer to 36,400.
Aldo Svaldi: 303-954-1410 or asvaldi@denverpost.com
