The Denver metro area lacks a good mixture of industries to cushion it against a continued downturn in the national economy, a senior research analyst for the Brookings Institution said Friday.
To ensure faster growth in the near future, Denver needs more jobs in health care, education and other growing sectors like the green economy, said Jonathan Rothwell, co-author of Brookings’ “Education, Demand and Unemployment” report released Friday.
If Denver doesn’t expand, Rothwell said, it will be dependent on national rebounds in its largest sectors.
Of 100 metro areas surveyed, Denver metro ranked 34th.
Denver ranked 14th in the “education gap” indices — defined as the extent to which demand for educated workers outstrips the supply of those workers in the regional labor market.
But he said the Denver metro area ranks a “low” 69th in “predicted growth from 2007 to 2009.”
“Denver’s metropolitan area had a disproportionate share of jobs in industries that were severely damaged by the recession, such as construction, administrative and support services and wholesale dealers,” Rothwell said. Those sectors shed 39,560 jobs from 2007 to 2010, he said.
One factor stopped unemployment from being worse — the education level of people in the metro area, he said.
“The average worker in Denver has slightly more education than required by the average job,” he said. “It has helped it to maintain a lower unemployment rate.”
The study looked at the Denver metro unemployment rate for May, which was 8.5 percent.
If the metro area can stimulate demand in health care, education and the green economy, “it will be in great shape because of its highly educated workforce,” Rothwell said.
But expansion in those areas is key, he added.
Statewide, health care and education were among the fastest-growing sectors for jobs during the past year, growing at a combined rate of 8.3 percent through July. Professional and business services grew 6.3 percent, according to the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. But employment in construction declined 9.8 percent and the largest sector in the state — trade, transportation and utilities — grew just 2.8 percent.
Howard Pankratz: 303-954-1939 or hpankratz@denverpost.com
