The stretch run and, most important, the respective conference tournament will be crucial for Colorado (17-8), Colorado State (15-8) and Denver (18-8) if those area men’s basketball teams are to at least remain in the conversation as potential “bubble teams” for the NCAA Tournament.
Of course, winning a conference tournament means an automatic invitation to the NCAA Tournament. That’s likely the only way for DU to punch a ticket, considering that the Sun Belt Conference traditionally is a “one-bid league” and that is unlikely to change this year.
As for Colorado and Colorado State, there’s much work to do to impress the NCAA Tournament selection committee. And at this point, each would have to be considered a longshot for an at-large bid.
Early-season defeats in nonconference play kept Colorado out of the NCAA Tournament last year, and the Buffs began slowly again this season with losses to Wichita State, Maryland, Colorado State and Wyoming before Dec. 10.
Although CU missed an opportunity Thursday to post a signature win at Arizona, the Buffs’ RPI would improve with a strong finish to the regular season. To be strongly considered for an at-large bid, CU had better get to 22 or 23 victories and reach the championship game of the Pac-12 Tournament, March 7-10 in Los Angeles.
“I feel confident in my team that we should be in this top echelon of the league,” CU senior guard Nate Tomlinson told after Saturday’s 63-49 win at Arizona State. “If we keep improving, we can win this thing.”
CSU built an impressive RPI by playing a challenging nonconference schedule, although a win over CU was the Rams’ most significant early-season victory. Beating then-No. 12 San Diego State has been the highlight of Mountain West play, and the Rams have more opportunities to impress — with regular-season games remaining against the big three of San Diego State, New Mexico and UNLV.
The guess here is that, to be strongly considered as a NCAA Tournament bubble team, CSU must win two of those three and then reach the championship game of the conference tournament, March 8-10 in Las Vegas.
It would benefit DU to finish the regular season strong and secure one of the top five seeds and receive a first-round bye in the Sun Belt Tournament (March 3-6 in Hot Springs, Ark.). DU had the most impressive nonconference victory among Front Range teams — a win over No. 16 Saint Mary’s. But the Pioneers have too many bad losses to be seriously considered for an at-large bid.
Tom Kensler: 303-954-1280 or tkensler@denverpost.com
