MOSCOW — Ukraine’s last cease-fire collapsed quickly. This one may last — because it’s in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s interests.
Putin’s goal of keeping Ukraine in Russia’s orbit remains the same. But recent battlefield gains by pro-Russia rebels mean that Moscow has the upper hand in peace talks that will help determine Ukraine’s future.
From the onset, Putin’s objective has been to secure enough autonomy for Ukraine’s Russian-speaking east that the region can keep its close ties to Russia — and to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.
While many fear Putin wants to seize more land, that doesn’t seem to be his preferred option. Putin apparently has calculated that the price would be too high, both because of the devastating economic punishment the West would impose and because of the need to spend tens of billions of dollars to support eastern Ukraine.
By brokering a cease-fire, Putin has made it clear that he doesn’t want to go down that road — for now.
While Putin and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko may have reached a preliminary understanding on what a political compromise could look like, putting it on paper will be extremely challenging, particularly in the run-up to Ukraine’s parliamentary elections in October.
The Kremlin can count on two things — the insurgency and Ukraine’s hobbled economy — to make Kiev reckon with Moscow’s demands. Putin appears to be betting on it.
