
Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.
(Karl Gehring, The Denver Post)
Troy Tulowitzki’s best moment of the 2014 season was a walk. Against Philadelphia’s Jonathan Pettibone at Coors Field on April 18, Tulowitzki pushed his first-inning at-bat to 14 pitches.
It was a career-high plate pitch count for the Rockies shortstop. He fouled off nine pitches — eight after the count went full. Then he walked. Tulowitzki went on to go 3-for-3 with a home run, double and 5 RBIs and the Rockies won 12-1.
Tulowitzki was locked in. He was the second-best player in baseball in the early months. And he was on the National League MVP shortlist into July. It was shaping up to be his best career season. Then hip surgery sidelined him after 91 games.
He’s played 264 games the past three seasons. That averages to 88 games per season.
So when Tulo trade talk percolated last week at baseball’s general manager meetings in Phoenix — among fans and media, if not among actual GMs — the arguments never found a settled-on middle. If the Rockies trade Tulo, are they trading 91-game Tulo? Or 30 home runs, 100 RBIs Tulo?
Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki loses the ball on an attempted force out of Atlanta Braves’ Tyler Pastornicky during the seventh inning of a baseball game Friday, May 23, 2014, in Atlanta. ()
The reason why the Rockies aren’t likely to trade Tulowitzki this winter is because nobody can quite answer those questions. Patrick Saunders on Sunday about this very discrepancy.
So what is Tulowitzki’s worth?
His 2014 season provides are insightful lesson.
Tulowitzki’s 5.1 WAR, according to Fangraphs, ranks him 22nd in baseball. In other words, he played barely more than half a season and he still was a Top 25 player in the game. Nobody ahead of him in WAR played fewer than 145 games. And, , Tulo reached a WAR of 4 before any other player even got to 3.
But looking at Tulo’s value requires you to find his context with the Rockies — literally by comparing him to his replacement last season.
Troy Tulowitzki
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GABRHRRBIBBSOAvgOBPSLGOPS913157121525057.340.432.6031.035
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GABRHRRBIBBSOAvgOBPSLGOPS105309444332083.269.323.405.728
Tulowitzki last season made $16 million, and he’ll get a raise to $20 million in 2015. Rutledge made $501,000 and doesn’t qualify for arbitration until 2016, so his salary will be the same next season.
Depending on the calculation you to , wins are worth about $6-7 million. So Tulowitzki was worth about $30-35 million. Even on just a half-season, he may have been underpaid. Not to mention all of this ignores his defensive game — he remains a top-2 shortstop in the NL, at a high-value position.
But those are rough estimates. And Tulo’s true value is whatever a team is willing to pay, either by salary or in trade pieces.
Point is — and here’s the bottom line — if the Rockies want to trade Tulowitzki, they HAVE TO replace a significant portion of his offensive production. They can’t trade him for pitching alone.
For the sake of argument, would you trade Tulowitzki straight up for Adam Wainwright? I voted . He had a great season. He finished with a 4.5 WAR, 11th-best among pitchers in MLB. A Tulo-for-Wainwright trade would be a mistake for the Rockies — because the Rockies aren’t trading Tulowitzki straight up for Wainwright. They’re trading Tulo for Wainwright and Josh Rutledge.
(This isn’t meant to rag on Rutledge, by the way. He was in a rough spot, parachuting into shortstop like he did. He filled in fine for Tulo. He’s growing into his role. But he’s no Tulo.)
So grading Tulowitzki’s 2014 year — and then, by extension, extrapolating his trade value — falls on two sides. His game time was stellar. He was by far the best shortstop in the game. That’s where the Rockies are working from. Other teams, though, are working from 91-game Tulo (his 0 WAR over the 71 other games). The difference between them is large.
Whatever the answer, we’re talking about a player whose value is in the details — even the walks.
2014 Salary: $16 million
2015 Salary: $20 million
Stat of Note: 1.035 … Tulowitzki’s on-base plus slugging percentage. It was the first four-digit OPS mark among Rockies players since Matt Holliday hit 1.012 over 158 games in 2007, the World Series year.
GRADE: Incomplete
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Tags: Josh Rutledge, Troy Tulowitzki



