Denver Post college basketball writer Tom Kensler looks at five key story lines (other than Kentucky’s run to the history books) heading into the real start of March Madness on Thursday:
1. Can Virginia, the No. 2 seed in the East Regional, make a long run without Justin Anderson fully recovered? The star 6-foot-6 junior forward was averaging 13 points before fracturing his right (shooting) hand in early February and needing surgery. While missing eight games, he underwent an appendectomy. Anderson returned to play sparingly in the ACC Tournament, missing all six of his field-goal attempts. Virginia is likely to face No. 7 seed Michigan State on Sunday. It may be tough for Virginia to get past the Spartans without some production from Anderson, including at the defensive end.
2. Who comes out of the West Regional, Wisconsin or Arizona? The No. 1-seeded Badgers and No. 2-seeded Wildcats are two of the teams mentioned in any discussion about who could stop Kentucky. Both teams have size, good athleticism and the ability to score in a variety of ways, which is necessary to hang with the Wildcats. Wisconsin needed overtime — and 28 points and 11 rebounds from 6-foot-11 Frank Kaminsky — to nip Arizona by a point in last year’s Elite Eight. The Wildcats will be eager for payback, again in the Elite Eight. And the return of 6-8 forward Brandon Ashley and his soft jump shot would be a matchup challenge for Wisconsin.
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3. Will any conference place multiple teams in the Final Four? The guess here is no. The leagues with the best chance appear to be the Big 12 and Pac-12. For the Big 12, Oklahoma (No. 3 seed in East), Iowa State (No. 3 in the South) and Baylor in the West are talented enough to make a run to Indianapolis. Kansas, a No. 2 seed, has little chance of getting by Kentucky in the Midwest. The best bets for the Pac-12: Arizona in the West and No. 5 seed Utah in the South.
4. Will another Butler or VCU emerge as a Cinderella story and make the Final Four? It does not look like it. Northern Iowa, sorry, UNI, of the Missouri Valley Conference is not exactly a sleeper with its No. 5 seeding in the East. Davidson (No. 10 in the South) is now in the Atlantic 10 and no longer should be considered a midmajor. But Davidson would be one of the best double-digit seeds, along with Texas (No. 11 in Midwest). But the Longhorns might have to beat Notre Dame and Kansas before getting to Kentucky. The lowest seed with a real shot at the Final Four is Michigan State, the No. 7 seed in the winnable East and a team peaking at the right time.
5. Is this the year Gonzaga reaches the Final Four for the first time? This is the school’s best shot. The Bulldogs, or Zags if you prefer, seem to have it all, with size, shooters and experience. The addition of Kentucky transfer Kyle Wiltjer gives Gonzaga the kind of matchup nightmare — a 6-10 inside-outside scorer — the Zags never had. Gonzaga is the No. 2 seed in the South and wouldn’t run into top-seeded Duke until the Elite Eight. Also, the Zags get their first two games in Seattle. No excuses.
