BEIRUT — The meltdown in Yemen is pushing the Middle East closer toward the wider regional conflagration that many long have feared would arise from the chaos unleashed by the Arab Spring revolts.
What began as a peaceful struggle to unseat a Tunisian dictator four years ago and then mutated into civil strife now risks spiraling into a full-blown war between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran.
With negotiators chasing a Tuesday deadline for the framework of a deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program, it seems unlikely that Iran would immediately respond militarily to Saudi airstrikes in Yemen, analysts say.
But the confrontation has added a new layer of unpredictability to the many conflicts that have turned large swaths of the Middle East into war zones over the past four years, analysts say.
The U.S. is aligned alongside Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and against them in Yemen. Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, who have joined in the Saudi offensive in Yemen, are bombing factions in Libya backed by Turkey and Qatar, who also support the offensive in Yemen.
Not for decades has there been a time when so many Arab states and factions were engaged in so many wars, in quite such confusing configurations, said Frederic Wehrey of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “It’s so dangerous,” he said.
The Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement holds sway in Lebanon; Iranian-backed fighters have propped up President Bashar Assad in Syria; and in Iraq, Iranian-backed militias wield power over more territory than the Iraqi army.
With its intervention in Yemen, Saudi Arabia is serving notice that it will no longer tolerate Iran’s unchecked expansion, said Mustafa Alani of the Dubai-based Gulf Research Council.
“It’s like a domino, and Yemen is the first attempt to stop the domino,” he said. “Now there is an awakening in the region, a counter-strategy, and Yemen is the testing ground. It is not just about Yemen, it is about changing the balance of power in the region.”
