After centuries of misunderstanding, historians revealed Tuesday that the eminent Greek soothsayer was, in fact, saying, “Beware the Izzo of March” — not a prophecy of Caesar’s death on March 15, but a prophecy of your bracket’s death in March ’15.
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo is the most underrated coach in all of sports, and that’s saying something, considering the dude has won a title. Even so. Izzo to March is what Reggie Jackson is to October (or Dave Winfield to May). Izzo has taken his Spartans to seven Final Fours, all since 1999, including this Saturday, when his No. 7 seed Spartans take on No. 1 seed Duke. He won the title in 2000 and made the title game in 2009, but, yeah, many coaches have outstanding postseason pedigree. What separates Izzo is his frightening tournament consistency, making the Sweet 16 in — and seven of the past eight.
Think about that. For some coaches, it’s an accomplishment to make a Sweet 16.
For Izzo, it’s headline news when he doesn’t.
The 60-year old from Iron Mountain, Mich., is fascinating to me in many regards. He has turned down the NBA. He gets talent, but his teams are more Burger King All-Americans than McDonald’s, often enhanced by some overlooked kid other schools missed. His teams often begin the season like they are an NIT front-runner, only to peak at just the right time, as the NCAA Tournament begins. And he gets kids to buy into playing defense, as if that’s something the pretty girls love to watch.
His ex-players swear by the guy.
So why is Izzo so good when it matters most?
“Man, there’s something about him,” said Nuggets rookie Gary Harris Jr., who went to the Elite Eight last March with Michigan State. “He gets us prepared, those long film sessions and practices, that’s when it all pays off, right now, this time of the year. We might complain, we might not like it at the time, but I love that they’re in the Final Four, and we had a chance to be there last year, too. It’s just the fact that he gets us ready and guys want to play for him, because he’s going to fight for you, and you’re going to fight for him.
“He’s one of a kind, you know?”
These days, “Mount Rushmores” are a thing sports fans virtually erect. Such as, who’s your Mount Rushmore of NBA coaches (Phil Jackson, Pat Riley, Gregg Popovich and Red Auerbach seem like slam dunks)? OK, but when people make their Mount Rushmore of NCAA coaches, seldom does Izzo’s skull get sculpted. John Wooden and Mike Krzyzewski are there, and then you’ll get a smorgasbord of names, from Bob Knight to Dean Smith to Adolph Rupp to John Thompson (or Rick Pitino or Jim Calhoun or John Calipari).
But consider this. The masterful mathematical site fivethirtyeight.com, in conjunction with ESPN.com, analyzes a stat called WAE — wins above expectation. They compare the number of tournament wins to the pretournament simple rating system, which looks at the number of wins predicted per seed. . They’ve won 16.2 more tournament games than would be expected from where they were seeded.
Since the NCAA Tournament was expanded to 64 teams in 1985, Izzo is No. 1 on the WAE list. Second is Pitino at 11.9. Following Pitino on the list are coaches with similar WAE ratings — Calipari (11.5), Billy Donovan (9.7) and Calhoun (9.5). Coach K, whose team is often a top-two seed, is at 6.3.
So, yes, if a championship is disproportionately important when you rate coaches, then Izzo isn’t knocking any legends off your personal Rushmore.
But the guy is a legend. He’s a March mad scientist.
Benjamin Hochman: bhochman@denverpost.com or
