The Cubs are everybody’s dark-horse darling. The Cardinals are, well, the Cardinals, simply the deepest, best-run franchise in baseball. Manager Clint Hurdle’s salty Pirates and the new-look Padres are fashionable picks to be a surprise. But let’s get real. Pitching rules in baseball, and the Dodgers and the Nationals have the pitchers. They are the two teams that likely will be left battling to make the World Series from the National League. The Nats signed 2013 American League Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer to a seven-year contract worth $210 million, bolstering an already deep rotation. The Dodgers can counter with their wicked one-two punch of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke and have super closer Kenley Jansen (due back from foot surgery in early May) to get the final outs. Here is a breakdown of each NL division, in predicted order of finish:
West
Dodgers may dethrone Giants
The Dodgers are once again favorites to win the division, even though it’s the rival Giants who have won the World Series three times in the past five years. To get over the hump, L.A. brought in Andrew Friedman as head of baseball operations from the Tampa Bay Rays. Of course, Friedman has a lot more money to spend. The Dodgers’ projected payroll is $265 million. The World Series champion Giants can’t be counted out. The Rockies and Diamondbacks? They’re fighting to stay out of the cellar.
Los Angeles Dodgers: L.A. is betting that two offseason pickups, starting pitchers Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, both of whom have long injury histories, will stay healthy. Offensively, the Dodgers need outfielder Yasiel Puig to grow up and become consistent.
San Francisco Giants: They lost outfielder Hunter Pence to a broken forearm, and he’ll miss the beginning of the season. Other questions loom: Will Matt Cain return to his ace form? How will World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner handle the effects of last year’s heavy workload? Can Casey McGehee replace Pablo Sandoval at third base?
San Diego Padres: The Padres were inept offensively a season ago. Hence, the additions of Matt Kemp and Justin Upton. Expectations are high, so there is a lot of pressure on 33-year-old right-hander James Shields. He has pitched 200 or more innings for eight consecutive seasons.
Colorado Rockies: Colorado has a formidable lineup but questionable starting pitching. The Rockies also have to figure out how to hit — and win — on the road (21-60 last season).
Arizona Diamondbacks: Manager Chip Hale, right-handed pitcher Jeremy Hellickson and outfielder-third baseman Yasmany Tomas are new. But the team’s flaw is an old one: The starting rotation — like the Rockies’ — is mediocre. What the Diamondbacks do feature is a powerful middle of the order featuring first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and right fielder Mark Trumbo.
Central
No guarantees in the Cards
The Cardinals are the only team in baseball to appear in a league championship series in each of the past four seasons. They have an ace in Adam Wainwright and a solid lineup, but the NL Central shapes up as the most competitive division in baseball, with the Pirates and Cubs both capable of knocking off St. Louis.
St. Louis Cardinals: They need right-hander Michael Wacha to recover from his right shoulder injury. The death of outfielder Oscar Taveras in a car accident left a gaping hole in the outfield, but the Cardinals filled it by trading for Jason Heyward.
Chicago Cubs: Manager Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay’s former skipper, below, has taken the Windy City by storm. Former Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester provides real hope. The star of the Cactus League was 23-year-old third baseman Kris Bryant, who will start the season in the minors but will have Wrigley Field buzzing soon.
Pittsburgh Pirates: They will miss catcher and leader Russell Martin, who departed for Toronto via free agency. Pittsburgh is also counting on getting a full season from Gregory Polanco, a potential star, who teams up with perennial MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen to provide the Bucs with a dynamic outfield.
Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are an enigma. They have a power ace in right-hander Johnny Cueto and a brilliant closer in Aroldis Chapman. In first baseman Joey Votto and outfielders Jay Bruce and Marlon Byrd, they have major talent. But the Reds consistently fail to put it all together.
Milwaukee Brewers: The Brew Crew’s starting rotation has potential, even after former No. 1 Yovani Gallardo was traded to Texas. Right-handers Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza are solid veterans. It’s righty Wily Peralta, who throws in the high 90s with serious sinking action, who provides the biggest spark of optimism.
East
Nationals coming up aces
In 2014, only the Nationals finished with a record above .500. They remain the heavy favorite to win the division, but both the Marlins and Mets have improved and should contend for a wild-card berth. The Braves have entered full rebuild mode. The Phillies? It’s going to get ugly in the City of Brotherly Love.
Washington Nationals: The acquisition of Max Scherzer makes Washington’s rotation the best in baseball. He struck out 252 hitters over 220 innings last year with Detroit and joins Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg to form a powerful 1-2-3 punch. Back-end starters Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez are also capable of dominating a game. How good is the Nationals’ starting pitching? Consider that Tanner Roark, a 15-game winner in 2014, has been sent to the bullpen.
Miami Marlins: How will outfielder Giancarlo Stanton respond to the pressure of signing an enormous contract? And, does Miami have enough pitching to stay afloat until (or if) ace righty Jose Fernandez returns at midseason from Tommy John surgery? Stanton signed the largest contract in baseball history (13 years, $325 million), and he’s returning to baseball after getting hit in the face by a pitch last September.
New York Mets: The spotlight shines directly on right-hander Matt Harvey, who appears to be all the way back from his 2013 Tommy John surgery. Mets fans are giddy, believing that Harvey, Bartolo Colon, Jacob deGrom, Jon Niese and Dillon Gee provide an effective rotation. However, the loss of Zack Wheeler, 24, to Tommy John surgery dampens that enthusiasm. Former Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer was brought in to bolster a middling offense.
Atlanta Braves: The Braves are in full rebuilding mode in order to have a contender when they open their new park in 2017. Atlanta lost a lot during the offseason: Right fielder Jason Heyward, left fielder Justin Upton and slugging catcher Evan Gattis were all traded. Gone with them are 62 of Atlanta’s 123 homers from a year ago.
Philadelphia Phillies: They’re bracing for a really bad season in Philadelphia. Left-hander Cliff Lee is hurt and may never pitch again. First baseman Ryan Howard, once a feared hitter, struck out 190 times a season ago.
