The Broncos’ defense of the Super Bowl championship is over before the 2016 NFL season begins.
When measuring success for Denver, the number of victories is a bad indicator this year. This year is all about identifying and developing the Broncos’ quarterback for the next 10 years, whether it’s Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch. Any other goal – including winning the AFC West or even making the playoffs – is secondary.
After putting together his 53-man roster, general manager John Elway insisted this team has improved from the one that won Super Bowl 50. Of course, that’s exactly what apountry wants to hear. Can I interest you in a tall, frosty glass of orange Kool-Aid?
“I think we’re better offensively, we can do more things with the football,” Elway said Saturday. “It gives us a better chance to be better on defense, because if he can stay on the field and pick up some third downs and keep those guys rested on the defensive side, we’ve got a chance to be better, too.”
Translation: The Broncos are going to try to suffocate the clock and bore foes to death. They are going to grind out victories. There might be plenty of excitement in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter, but the 58 minutes of game time to get there could be nap-inducing. The offense run by Gary Kubiak will run and run and run some more, and might be so conservative it makes former coach John Fox look more liberal than Bernie Sanders.
I like the team Elway is putting together. Give it a year to mature and the Broncos will be right back at the league’s elite level. But I also think that deep in his heart, Elway knows repeating as Super Bowl champion is a long shot at best.
Elway’s motto is: Win now. And win from now on.
The Broncos’ win-now moment was a glorious February day when the team beat Carolina. The rest of 2016, however, will be dedicated to winning from now on.
This is a team in transition. They have three quarterbacks. None of them is older than 27 years old. Combined, they have 10 NFL starts and have thrown 13 touchdown passes, all by Austin Davis, acquired off the street .
Yes, an NFL team with a dominant defense can win a championship without an experienced quarterback. New England did it with Tom Brady. Pittsburgh did it with Ben Roethlisberger. Seattle did it with Russell Wilson. All three quarterbacks won the Super Bowl by age 25.
But Siemian, who earned the starting nod for the Broncos in the season opener, is not Brady, Roethlisberger or Wilson. If Denver truly believed Siemian had elite QB skills, would Elway have traded up in the first round to select Lynch out of Memphis in the NFL draft?
Going with Siemian to start the season gives Lynch more time to adjust to the speed of play and defensive schemes he will encounter in the NFL. But no quarterback drafted in the first round sits forever. The learning curve for an inexperienced QB is steep. But why delay it with Lynch? If the Broncos give him a redshirt season in 2016, it only makes it less likely Lynch can be an impact player in 2017.
If Lynch is the outstanding prospect that I and Elway think he is, then the rookie should be ready to play no later than Oct. 24, when Houston and our old friend Brock Osweiler visit town. Would that be a juicy matchup?
One of my favorite singers is the late, great Warren Zevon. Before losing a battle with lung cancer in 2003, Zevon told his friend David Letterman that one thing he had learned from life is to “enjoy every sandwich.” Itap about as good advice as you’ll get.
So here’s my advice to apountry in 2016: Enjoy every victory, because there probably won’t be that many, at least by the team’s recent lofty standards.
My prediction: 8-8. No AFC West title for the first time since 2010. No playoff appearance.
But everybody else in the NFL better enjoy Denver being down while they can.
The Broncos will be back, winning from now on. Soon. The present, however, is all about finding out if Siemian and Lynch can play.
