Note: This originally started out as a section in the morning edition of the , our daily guide through the wilds of the day’s news. But the subject is much larger than a couple of paragraphs and quickly grew out of control, hence this special edition.
. I promise it’s not usually this serious.
Ryancare/Trumpcare/AHCA by the Numbers
Yesterday, as you no doubt have heard by now, . Here are some of the big takeaways from the report ().
Important caveat: The scenarios below refer to people who do NOT have employer-provided health insurance, where the effects of the new bill are much harder to predict. So keep that in mind.
Try it yourself
+ Before you do much of anything else, , a health care nonprofit organization. The map illustrates — basically — the financial difference for an individual (you can tweak the income and age) between Obamacare and the AHCA.
Visual key: blue means it would cost more than Obamacare, orange means it would cost less, via tax credits.
+ Play with it long enough and you’ll discover something: It actually looks good for some types of people (27-year-olds that make $75,000/year), but for the people it’s bad for (60-year-olds making around $30K), it’s really, really bad.
Let’s take a look at some of the other factors at play.
Six headlines to explain the report
+ For structure, I’m going to use a modified version of the “five headlines” , with one addition since he doesn’t include anything about the effect on federal spending which, for some, is the entire reason for the replacement bill in the first place.
24 million people would no longer have insurance, many of them kids and the elderly poor …
+ By 2018, the report estimates, 14 million fewer people would have insurance. . — WaPo
+ A 64-year-old making $26,500 per year would pay $1,700 per year for Obamacare insurance.. This is the textbook definition of the distinction between “choice” and “affordability.” The 64-year-old has the “choice” to pay for that coverage, but in reality, it’s completely impractical.— NYT
+ Basically, the plan . — FiveThirtyEight
… because Medicaid will be cut by 25 percent or $880 billion …
+ The executive branch’s independent analysis was actually bleaker, showing 26 million people losing insurance, . — Politico
+ The plan takes back the Medicaid expansion that covered an , in addition to changing the way the feds pay states to administer Medicaid, . — Standard & Poors, Vox
… to pay for a $670 billion tax cut for wealthy individuals, pharmaceutical companies, insurance companies and tanning salons …
+ The biggest tax cut included in the bill is a repeal of a 3.8 percent tax on capital gains, dividend, and interest income for families that make more than $250,000. That cut alone . — Vox, Comittee For a Responsible Federal Budget
+ Obamacare charges you $695 per year if you do not have health insurance, the proceeds of which go to the government to be redistributed to other programs. Under the AHCA, if you go two months without insurance, insurance companies can charge you 30 percent higher premiums, . — The Atlantic
+ One seemingly bizarre angle that almost went unnoticed is the fact that the AHCA repeals the so-called “Snooki tax,” aka the 10-percent tax on tanning salons . — Politico (circa 2014)
… to replace Obamacare, which despite claims is not in a death spiral …
+ Since the phrase “death spiral” was attached to Obamacare late last year, fact check after fact check has shown that — while there are significant problems with price and inconsistent subsidies — . — CBS News
+ The CBO report , the existing structure of Obamacare is stable, even with its flaws. — WaPo, CBO
… and any lower premiums paid by some people would be because the insurance isn’t as valuable.
+ The CBO points out () the AHCA takes away the requirement that insurance plans have a certain actuarial value, the removal of which will make all the plans available in a market less valuable on average. — CBO
All while lowering the deficit by $337 billion
+ : lower premiums (see above) for some people and a $337 billion reduction in the deficit. Which is nothing to sneeze at if spending is your primary concern. — Fox News
What’s next
The thing about the AHCA is that it isn’t a law … yet. And the CBO has raised enough questions that the bill is far from its final form.
+ Today, press secretary Sean Spicer says that the bill is just one part of health care reform and . — The Week
+ The Washington Post . You may want to bookmark this one. — WaPo
Thanks for indulging this special edition of the Roundup. If you have any specific questions or concerns about the AHCA, shoot me an email, and I’ll keep your suggestions in mind as the bill develops.