PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. — It may be hard to believe as a large swath of the U.S. thaws out from a bitter polar vortex, but spring is coming early, according to handlers for some of the country’s most famous prognosticating groundhogs.
Just before 7:30 a.m. Saturday, Punxsutawney (puhnk-suh-TAW’-nee) Phil emerged from his burrow in Pennsylvania at sunrise and didn’t see his shadow. Nearly the same series of events unfolded about 300 miles (483 kilometers) to the east, where Staten Island Chuck’s handlers also revealed the same prediction.
The festivities have their origin in a German legend that says if a furry rodent casts a shadow on Feb. 2, winter continues. If not, spring comes early.
In reality, Phil’s prediction is decided ahead of time by the group on Gobbler’s Knob, a tiny hill just outside Punxsutawney. Thatap about 65 miles (105 kilometers) northeast of Pittsburgh.
So just how accurate is our furry friend?
Well, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has some historical data to put the prediction in perspective.
Since 1887, Phil has seen his shadow 104 times — indicating more winter — as opposed to only 18 times where he’s seen no shadow, a sign of early spring, according to NOAA.
In the past 10 years, the prognosticating groundhog has been right only 40 percent of the time. Phil has seen his shadow four times over the past five years, the weather service said, but his prediction has been wrong three times over that span.
Ever wonder how accurate 's forecasts are? Investigate past forecasts with U.S. climate records.
— National Weather Service (@NWS)
New York Mayor Bill de Blasio stopped attending Staten Island’s Groundhog Day ceremony in 2015, a year after he accidentally dropped the furry critter that died a week later.
And he wasn’t the only New York City mayor who struggled with the holiday. Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg was bitten at a Groundhog Day ceremony in 2009.
