Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins (8-5) and Buffalo Bills (10-3) match up in six key areas ahead of Saturday’s Week 15 game :
When the Dolphins run: It could be a huge X-factor in if Miami is able to do something it’s not expected to do well: Run the football. An added challenge, however, is the possibility of trying to establish a run game against the league’s fourth-ranked run defense without Jeff Wilson, after he was listed as a non-participant Tuesday and Wednesday on the injury report for a hip ailment.
Outside of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s three scrambles for 28 yards last game against the Los Angeles Chargers, the Dolphins had 4.0 yards per carry on runs with their tailbacks, 64 yards on 16 attempts. It wasn’t a bad number and something the Dolphins can continue to expand upon after rushing just eight times against San Francisco the week prior, especially if Tagovailoa continues to struggle through the air.
Buffalo hit a rough patch stopping the run in the middle of the season but has since held opponents under 100 yards on the ground in four consecutive games. Starting linebacker Matt Milano and rotational defensive tackle Jordan Phillips have their status in question ahead of Saturday’s game, but the Bills have a number of other run stoppers in their defensive front, including linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and defensive tackle Ed Oliver. Edge: Bills
When the Bills run: The Bills’ eighth-ranked rushing attack goes against Miami’s seventh-ranked run defense. The Dolphins have consistently been stout against the traditional run game but have struggled against scrambling quarterbacks.
Buffalo’s Josh Allen is very capable on the ground with 628 rushing yards and six touchdowns. American Heritage-Delray High grad and FAU alum Devin Singletary has run for a team-leading 642 yards, at 4.4 yards per carry, and four touchdowns. Rookie and Miami Central High product James Cook has a 5.1 average on his 64 rushing attempts this season.
Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins has been unblockable by opposing offensive lines of late. Jaelan Phillips, in addition to his pass rush, has also been effective against the run. The linebacker tandem of Jerome Baker and Elandon Roberts has 83 and 81 tackles, respectively, entering this game. Edge: Dolphins
When the Dolphins pass: A trip to the West Coast has turned Tagovailoa from arguably the hottest quarterback in the league to the one facing the biggest struggles over the past two weeks. He has completed 28-of-61 passes (45.9 percent) for 440 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions over road losses to the 49ers and Chargers. Now, he has to go into the frigid north and perform against the Bills defense in the wind and snow, elements which have in the past.
Buffalo can look into what San Francisco and Los Angeles did to stop the Miami passing game and add their own flavor to it. Since the Dolphins last faced the Bills in Week 3 with Buffalo’s entire secondary out, they have gotten safety Jordan Poyer and cornerback Tre’Davious White back and added veteran Xavier Rhodes, so it will be a much more talented secondary than Miami faced won it won, 21-19, on Sept. 25. Buffalo, however, did lose star pass rusher Von Miller for the season.
Tyreek Hill, fresh off breaking the Dolphins’ single-season receiving record, takes his 100 catches and 1,460 yards into this matchup after he scored both of Miami’s toucdowns on Sunday in L.A. as the Dolphins’ lone saving grace to keep them competitive. Jaylen Waddle will be in search of a bounce-back effort after the Chargers shut him down, without a catch until the fourth quarter at SoFi Stadium. Tight end Mike Gesicki, without a catch in the past month, is not being utilized in the offense. Edge: Bills
When the Bills pass: Allen has gotten over his midseason interception rut and has only been picked off once in the past four games. He is completing 63.8 percent of passes for 3,553 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in leading Buffalo’s No. 6-ranked passing attack. He also has plenty of experience performing in cold weather.
Star wide receiver Stefon Diggs is having another stellar season with 94 receptions for 1,239 yards and 10 touchdowns. He and Gabriel Davis (38-696-6), slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie (38-380-4) and tight end Dawson Knox (37-368-3) form one of the most formidable pass-catching tandems. The Bills also signed veteran slot Cole Beasley to the practice squad this week and he may immediately get elevated to debut this season with Buffalo.
Cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Kader Kohou will have their hands full. Safety Jevon Holland may not have either Eric Rowe or Elijah Campbell alongside him. The pass-rushing trio of Bradley Chubb, Phillips and Melvin Ingram will be critical. Edge: Bills
Special teams: Dolphins special teams units had a decent outing in L.A. after struggles throughout the year. Kicker Jason Sanders made his lone field goal attempt, a 55-yarder to keep Miami alive late. Thomas Morstead was reliable in the punting game.
Bills kicker Tyler Bass has been exceptional, making 26 of 29 field goals. Buffalo has gotten a boost in the return game from the trade deadline acquisition of Nyheim Hines. Edge: Bills
Intangibles: So many factors line up for Buffalo. They’re at home. They’re accustomed to the cold weather. The Dolphins are not. Miami travels on a short week, getting back to South Florida from a week and a half and two losses in California on Monday morning to fly out to Western New York on Friday for a Saturday night game.
The Dolphins have a five-game losing streak at Buffalo. The Bills will have it out for the Dolphins after Miami won the early-season meeting in the opposite climate. The Dolphins have a five-game losing streak to opponents currently with a winning record. Buffalo is on a four-game winning streak. Miami is on a two-game losing streak. Edge: Bills
PREDICTION: Bills 27, Dolphins 12
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