Broncos (1-4) at Chiefs (4-1)
When: 6:15 p.m. MT, Thursday
Where: Arrowhead Stadium
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/KMGH-7, Amazon Prime Video
Broncos-Chiefs series: The Broncos are 54-71 in 126 regular-season games dating back to 1960; the Broncos lost 27-24 in the last meeting, on Jan. 1, 2023, and have lost 15 in a row to their division rival.
In the spotlight
Letap rewind the clock. The last time the Broncos defeated the Chiefs was Sept. 15, 2015. Former quarterback Peyton Manning threw for three touchdowns, while cornerback Bradley Roby scored the go-ahead TD off a fumble recovery in the final seconds of regulation to win, 31-24.
At the time, the Broncos were one of the best teams in football. Shedeur Sanders was 13. Robert Downey Jr. was still Iron Man, Stranger Things had yet to become a worldwide phenomenon and Travis Scottap album “Rodeo” had just been released.
Since then, a lot has changed in the world and with the Broncos. The franchise has had six straight losing seasons, five different head coaches and 12 players start at quarterback.
Yeah, itap been bad.
As the Broncos gear up to face the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, the new home of the Swifties, they are not dwelling on the past. At 1-4, Denver just wants to win and hopefully salvage its season.
“We’ve got to create a new history,” quarterback Russell Wilson said. “We have to be able to do that with one play at a time, one moment at a time (and) one game at a time. Every game has a history of its own, and we’ve got to be focused on this one and go win.”
The Broncos have lost to the Chiefs by six points or less in each of the last three games. Last season, Denver faced double-digit deficits against Kansas City before making things interesting towards the end. In Week 14, the Broncos trailed 27-0 in the second quarter. The Broncos outscored the Chiefs 28-7 after that but ultimately fell short in the 34-28 loss.
Three weeks later, Denver was down 27-17 in the fourth quarter before losing by three points. Safety Justin Simmons said beating the Chiefs for the first time in his career would be huge but doesn’t let the streak cloud his mind.
“I know a lot of people want to talk about the streak, but the fact of the matter is each year there’s a new team,” he said. “A win would be great (and) it would mean even more (because) of where we are at in the season.”
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run
The Broncos were moving the ball effectively against New York in the first half, rushing for 115 yards. But Denver was held to 24 yards rushing in the second. Kansas City is ranked 11th in the league in rushing yards allowed (97.2) and held the Vikings to 70 on the ground last week. Edge: Chiefs
When Broncos pass
Courtland Sutton was nonexistent against the Jets last week. The veteran wide receiver had one reception for 13 yards on just three targets. The Broncos’ pass protection has alternated between effective (one sack allowed vs. both Miami and Chicago) and bad (four sacks vs. the Jets, seven vs. Washington) over the past four games. They cannot afford for it to be the latter Thursday night, as Chris Jones is an elite interior pass rusher, recording 4 1⁄2 sacks in four games. Meanwhile, Kansas City cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed have been a solid tandem. Quarterbacks have a 63.3 passer rating against Sneed. Edge: Chiefs
When Chiefs run
Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco is building off a strong rookie season. He has recorded a rushing touchdown in each of the past three games. Against the Jets in Week 4, he rushed for 115 yards and caught three passes for 43 yards. The Broncos haven’t figured out how to slow down the run since Week 1, as they have allowed 187.6 rushing yards a game. That includes Sunday’s disastrous effort against the Jets that saw them surrender 234 yards on 32 carries (7.3 yards/carry). Edge: Chiefs
When Chiefs pass
Patrick Mahomes has put up modest numbers to his standards so far this season. The biggest issue is that the Chiefs don’t have a reliable pass catcher outside of tight end Travis Kelce, who has a team-best 222 receiving yards. However, the Broncos have struggled mightily as a pass defense, allowing the fourth-most passing yards in the league. Could this be the game where young receivers Skyy Moore and Rashee Rice break out? Edge: Chiefs
Special teams
The Broncos are fifth in the league in kick return yards (176). But rookie Marvin Mims Jr. has had ball control issues in the past two games, fumbling on a kick and punt return. Kansas City kicker Harrison Butker has been lights out this season, going 10 for 10 on field goal attempts and 14 for 14 on extra point attempts. The Chiefs have allowed the seventh-fewest punt return yards (35) on five attempts. Denver is 11th in that category. Edge: Even
Coaching
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has led the franchise to two Super Bowl victories in four years. And at 4-1, Kansas City is expected to make another run at the Super Bowl despite the lack of pass-catching threats. Even with Sean Payton’s coaching resume, the Broncos have remained mediocre and regressed badly on defense under coordinator Vance Joseph. To Payton’s credit, Russell Wilson and the offense have drastically improved from last season. The rest of the team still has work to do. Edge: Chiefs
Tale of the tape
| Broncos | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 328.2 (16th) | 381 (7th) |
| Rush offense | 104.2 (19th) | 123 (12th) |
| Pass offense | 224.0 (13th) | 258 (7th) |
| Points per game | 24.2 (10th) | 25.6 (9th) |
| Total defense | 450.6 (32nd) | 301.4 (9th) |
| Run defense | 187.6 (32nd) | 97.2 (11th) |
| Pass defense | 263 (29th) | 204.2 (13th) |
| Points allowed | 36.2 (32nd) | 16.0 (6th) |
*Stats through Week 5
By the numbers
2,959: Passing yards Patrick Mahomes has in 11 career games against the Broncos.
96.6: Career passer rating for Mahomes against the Broncos.
8: Targets Sutton has had in the past two games for Denver.
5.9: Rushing yards per carry the Broncos have allowed this season.
75.4: Opposing quarterbacks’ passer rating against Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II.
Bet on it
Line: Chiefs -10.5
Unless defensive coordinator Vance Joseph can wave a magic wand to fix Denver’s poor tackling and run defense, itap hard to imagine the Broncos pulling off an upset. Pacheco might put up career numbers on Thursday night.
Prop bet: Over/under 47.5
The Broncos are playing the Chiefs. Hammer the over.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Chiefs 37, Broncos 24
Patrick Mahomes and company haven’t had the otherworldly offense so far in 2023 thatap been a staple of his time there, but this week they play against, statistically, one of the worst defenses in the NFL’s modern era. That should be plenty to make the Arrowhead Stadium crowd happy in primetime. Russell Wilson played well against KC twice last year, but even a good outing this week isn’t likely to be enough.
Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Chiefs 35, Broncos 21
Wilson is going to put up some decent numbers against Kansas City. But decent is not enough, especially when the defense is allowing nearly 40 points a game. The Broncos will fall deeper into the black abyss, as this game might be over at halftime.
Mark Kiszla, columnist: Chiefs 41, Broncos 20
Coach Sean Payton insists Denver isn’t looking to move any players, but the team is fielding calls about trades. Does receiver Courtland Sutton have the cellphone number of general manager George Paton? Because if Sutton doesn’t get more touches, he might be tempted to ask for a trade at halftime.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Chiefs 31, Broncos 17
If the Dolphins could stack 10 touchdowns on this defense, good gravy, what could an enchanted Patrick Mahomes put up on the holy ground at Arrowhead? Seven? Eight? Call it what you want, but this one feels like a story we already know all too well, especially as the Broncos’ front seven is getting gashed with holes bigger than the whole sky. Only 11 more weeks to go ’til New Year’s Day.
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