Denver’s dry spell could break mid-November, but the first snowflakes remain on track to be some of the latest recorded in the city, according to the National Weather Service.
As of Thursday afternoon, the first snowflakes to fall in Denver this season were expected to be the fifth-latest on record, if not later, according to the weather service.
Snow is highly unlikely in the next week as above-normal temperatures continue in Denver, weather service meteorologist Zach Hiris said.
“We’ve just got that rinse and repeat of warm, dry weather over the next few days,” Hiris said.
That pattern, which has persisted for weeks and delayed Denver’s first snow from the average date by nearly three weeks already, has been caused by a high-pressure “weather ridge,” Hiris said.
Overnight temperatures are forecast to dip below freezing on Saturday and Sunday, but the lack of precipitation means snow still isn’t expected to fall in the city, .
The chances of snow after that are still unclear, but Hiris said winter conditions will be “more favorable” in the second half of November.
Specifically, the high-pressure pattern is expected to begin shifting on Nov. 15 or Nov. 16, making way for the low-pressure conditions that increase the likelihood of colder, wetter weather, Hiris said.
If no snow has fallen by the end of the day on Nov. 16, it will be Denver’s fifth-latest first snow on record, . If it falls as soon as the weather shifts on Nov. 15, it will still tie for the sixth-latest first snowfall on record.
On average, Denver sees its first measurable snowfall of at least 0.1 inches by Oct. 18, .
The city has documented snow as early as Sept. 3, a record set in 1961, and as late as Dec. 10, a record set in 2021.
Denver recorded its first snowfall before November only twice between 2014 and 2024, according to the weather service. But the first snow fell before Nov. 16 in nine of those years, making this season’s first snowfall likely to be one of the latest of the decade.
Denver’s 20 latest first snowfalls:
- Dec. 10, 2021, with 0.3 inches of snow;
- Nov. 21, 1934, with 1 inch of snow;
- Nov. 19, 1931, with 1 inch of snow;
- Nov. 17, 2016, with 1.7 inches of snow;
- Nov. 16, 1894, with 2.6 inches of snow;
- Nov. 15, 2010, with 1.5 inches of snow;
- Nov. 15, 1988, with 2.5 inches of snow;
- Nov. 15, 1987, with 6.1 inches of snow;
- Nov. 15, 1902, with 4 inches of snow;
- Nov. 14, 2008, with 0.1 inches of snow;
- Nov. 14, 1964, with 4.2 inches of snow;
- Nov. 14, 1944, with 0.1 inches of snow;
- Nov. 12, 1909, with 4.6 inches of snow;
- Nov. 11, 2014, with 0.1 inches of snow;
- Nov. 11, 1882, with 3.5 inches of snow;
- Nov. 10, 1940, with 4.2 inches of snow;
- Nov. 10, 1886, with 1 inch of snow;
- Nov. 8, 1983, with 1.8 inches of snow;
- Nov. 8, 1891, with 0.7 inches of snow;
- Nov. 7, 1998, with 1.2 inches of snow;
- And Nov. 7, 1888, with 0.1 inches of snow.
At least 0.1 inches of snow has to accumulate to count as the city’s first measurable snowfall, according to the weather service.
