Mark Straus, a Rockies fan from Glenwood Springs, posed the question. In essence, he wanted to know how Greg Maddux would fare in today’s era with the
From 1986 to 2008, Maddux was baseball’s ultimate control pitcher, and home plate umpires were his friends. He won 335 games and posted a 3.16 ERA. The right-hander struck out 3,371 batters and walked just 999.
For those too young to remember, here’s the introduction to on the National Baseball Hall of Fame’s website:
“At times, Greg Maddux’s mastery of the strike zone seemed effortless. Fastball down-and-away – on the black – for strike one. Fastball in on the hands for strike two. Change-up away for strike three.
“Pitch after pitch, strike after strike for the average-looking right-hander who elevated “control” to a new definition in the 1990s.”
Pitchers like Maddux and Tom Glavine, his Atlanta teammate, were craftsmen, pitching on the edges and moving the ball around the plate. There was a well-founded perception that umpires gave them an expanded strike zone. When the duo was inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 2014, the running joke was that they should receive extra-wide plaques.
There is no question that ABS has changed the game that Maddux and Glavine knew. As of last week, the majors’ walk rate (9.4%) is 1% higher than last year’s end-of-season figure. If the current rate holds up for the rest of the season, it would be the highest since 2000. Only five seasons have produced a walk rate higher than 9.5%: 1948 to 1951 and 2000.
Like Mark from Glenwood Springs, I was intrigued by the Maddux Question. So I asked around about how Maddux would fare in the ABS era.
“I think he would have been still great because the decision on when to challenge would be tough, because he was so good at hitting his spots,” said of the 1990s. Smoltz entered Cooperstown in 2015 and is now Fox Sports’ lead baseball analyst.
“So the two challenges would have to be perfect all the time by the hitters,” Smoltz continued. “People don’t realize that the art of pitching is to put pressure on the hitter to decide to swing or not, and for the umpire to call a strike or not.
“Maddux could throw a strike any time he wanted, but he could also put it on the corners any time he wanted. Good luck to the hitters who could recognize a ball out of his hand. Or stay off his changeup.”
for The Athletic, pondered the Maddux Question and gave me a terrific answer.
“This is so fun to think about,” Stark said. “Would ABS have forced Maddux to pitch differently? Absolutely. But would he have figured it out? Of course, he would. He’s Greg Maddux. He was a pitching genius.
“He’d have cracked the code of ABS before anyone else even knew there was a code. I wish I could haul out my time machine and see how he would have done it.”
When I asked Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer the question, he got a little spicy.
“Greg Maddux would make the adjustments he needed to make and would still be one of the greatest pitchers of all time,” Schaeffer said. “He’s one of one.”
When I pointed out that Maddux’s reputation effectively turned balls out of the zone into strikes — at least in the eyes of the umpires, Schaeffer had a ready answer.
“Yeah, that helped, at times, and I’ve seen videos of umpires giving him pitches this far off,” Schaffer said, holding his index fingers about 5 inches apart. “But today, he would find ways to get hitters out. I guarantee it.
“Maddux was the greatest of all time doing that — putting it where he wants to. The greatest of all time. OK, it’s hard for me to say the greatest of all-time. I’m 41 years old, and I don’t know everything. But as far as what I have seen and what I grew up watching, Greg Maddux was the greatest of all time (controlling pitches). So, of course, Greg Maddux would succeed now. But it’s a good question.”
Yes, it is. So thanks, Mark Straus from Glenwood Springs.
