Back in January, I was talking doom and gloom with a Major League Baseball muckety muck.
I said I was encouraged by the changes to the Rockies’ front office and excited to see the team’s rebuild. However, I added that the upcoming labor war would stall the Rockies’ reconstruction project. A lengthy and ugly lockout was all but certain. A full 2027 season was in jeopardy, I said.
The muckety muck said I was overreacting.
“This is different than the last lockout,” he said. “We were coming off the 2020 pandemic then, and I think the lockout kind of snuck up on people. I think it’s a good sign that both sides have been talking publicly about this. It’s more out in the open.”
I was skeptical when he said it then. I’m even more skeptical now after reading the rhetoric thrown into the public arena this week.
The Ultimately, MLB and the MLB Players Association agreed to a new CBA on March 10, salvaging the 162-game season. However, the start of the season was delayed by eight days.
This lockout could be much longer and a lot worse.
On Wednesday, the MLBPA made its proposal for a new collective bargaining agreement public. On Thursday, MLB presented its 200-page proposal, which included its first official salary cap proposal since 1994.
The union’s response was swift, predictable, and unyielding.
“(Wednesday), the MLBPA presented a comprehensive package of proposals designed to improve compensation for players at all levels, and to incentivize and reward competition on the field,” interim union chief Bruce Meyer said in a statement. “The owners responded today with a demand for a salary cap system, something generations of players have fought against. The last time the owners made such an explicit push for a cap — over 30 years ago — it led to the longest work stoppage in MLB history.
“For generations, our members have fought against cap systems because they harm players at all levels, erode or eliminate contractual guarantees, pit player against player, lead to more work stoppages, not less, and get worse for players over time.”
In other words, MLB’s proposal was a non-starter.
Under MLB’s proposal, each team would need to maintain a payroll between $171.2 million and $245.3 million, starting in 2027. There would be a 50-50 split of revenues.
“The biggest issue we need to solve next to continue to grow the game off the field is fixing the payroll disparity unseen in any other major U.S. sport,” MLB spokesperson Glen Caplin said in a statement. “Ultimately, the game is about hope and competition and too many fans in too many markets have too little hope their team has a fair chance to win.
“Fans overwhelmingly support a salary cap and floor like in the other leagues because they don’t believe a $446 million spending gap from top to bottom is a fair fight. Our salary cap and floor proposal levels the playing field while sharing baseball revenue with the players 50/50 as we grow the game together.”
The players aren’t buying it.
“Baseball is experiencing unprecedented momentum and owners are enjoying record viewership, revenues and franchise values,” Meyer’s statement said. “Billionaire owners are not seeking to cap their profits or asset values, only player salaries.
“This isn’t out of generosity or a desire to protect the game’s well-being. Itap a play to control costs, increase profits and maximize franchise values — all at the expense of players past, present and future. We’ll continue our review of the owners’ proposal and stand ready to negotiate system improvements that benefit players and fans alike.”
The only shared sentiment from either side is that they are seeking a new CBA that will “benefit the fans.”
That’s laughable. Volleyballing the fans back and forth in negotiations has nothing to do with the labor war. This is about money and power. The fans are an afterthought.
A fundamental part of MLB’s proposal is a change to local media revenues. As the sport would centralize TV revenue, a major change commissioner Rob Manfred has sought. That means the big-market teams with the largest television contracts, such as the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs, are willing to share their TV money — a trade-off in exchange for the other benefits they’d reap in a cap system.
Writes Drellich: “Itap a change that owners probably would never be willing to make outside of a cap system.”
The key point in the latest labor battle is that MLB wants to change the system by implementing a hard cap. The MLBPA does not.
It’s important to remember that MLB remains the only major North American professional sports league without a cap-and-floor system. The owners argue that the players — especially the wealthiest, along with their powerful agents — will have to bend and reconsider their position on a cap.
put it this way: “The league is positioning its salary cap stance as the panacea to competitive balance issues. Regardless of some small-market, low-revenue teams’ ability to construct some of the best teams in baseball — the Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Guardians are perennial winners under the current system — large-market, big-payroll teams have won the past 10 World Series.
“Combine that with the dominance of the Los Angeles Dodgers and league polling that shows fans want a cap-and-floor system like the NFL, NBA and NHL, and it has emboldened the league to pursue change, even if the union regards a salary cap as a declaration of war.”
That sounds ominous.
The last time baseball owners proposed a firm cap, in 1994, it prompted a 7½-month strike that forced the cancellation of the World Series for the first time in 90 years. MLB eventually withdrew the cap proposal after pressure from the National Labor Relations Board. Still, the damage was done.
On the field and in the public consciousness, baseball is in a good place. Changes — the pitch clock and ABS, in particular — have made the game more enjoyable. The level of play has never been better.
But if games are wiped out in 2027, the fallout could be worse than in 1994. There are a lot more entertainment options now than there were three decades ago. This time around, baseball fans might not forgive, and they might forget to come back.
