Like everything about Valeri Nichushkin’s time with the Colorado Avalanche, how the club moves forward without him is … complicated.
When Nichushkin was available and in form, he was one of the best two-way forwards in the NHL, a massively valuable player on a team-friendly contract. On a team with Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen or Martin Necas, Devon Toews and Artturi Lehkonen, the best version of Nichushkin was the secret sauce. No one else had a secondary star who could dominate games in all phases like Nichushkin.
How does any team replace that, let alone a franchise that needed to send him away for salary cap flexibility?
“I don’t know that you do,” Avs goalie Mackenzie Blackwood said. “I think there’s guys that will fill roles and take positions, but I don’t think you necessarily get a new Valeri Nichushkin. I think you just kind of fill gaps and make adjustments for what you do or you don’t have. We’ll all miss him. He’s a great friend, great player and I wish him well.”
Availability was a well-known issue for Nichushkin, including at the most critical times during the 2023 and 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs. He was absolutely one of the biggest reasons why Colorado won a championship in 2022, and one of the biggest reasons why the Avs’ seasons ended earlier than expected in 2023 and 2024.
Here’s another wrinkle: While Nichushkin was an elite, two-way force from 2022-25, he had his worst season last year since before the Avs’ championship. The underlying numbers were still great at 5-on-5, and he was a key part of the club’s No. 1-ranked penalty kill, but his traditional stats tumbled — both in the regular season and the playoffs. He finished with 17 goals and 49 points in 72 regular-season games, then two goals and four points in 12 playoff contests.
Given his age — he’ll be 32 years old in early March — and injury history beyond the off-ice issues, maybe the guy who produced per-82-game pace of 35 goals and 71 points from 2022-25 wasn’t coming back for the Avs in 2026-27.
Still, the version of him from last season, which included elite advanced stats playing next to Brock Nelson on the second line, would be very valuable.
“Val’s a bit of a unicorn as an NHL player,” Avs captain Gabe Landeskog said. “I think we all know that. We’ve seen his skill set, seen what he brings to the table.
“(He) became a heck of an NHL player and somebody at the pinnacle of it, was one of the best players for our team in the in the finals. Then … obviously ups and downs, things off the ice that we can’t really relate to what he was dealing with. Nobody really can, right? But I think the organization did a great job of standing by his side, and Val did a really good job of doing the best he possibly could to right his ship, I guess you could call it.”
At his peak, Nichushkin was critical for the Avs in all three phases of the game. How will they attempt to replace him? It might be someone different in each phase.
Even strength
Both Nelson and Nichushkin were considered Selke Trophy candidates last season, in part because they were a terrifying tandem at 5-on-5. The Avs produced 60.33% of the expected goals at 5-on-5 when Nichushkin was on the ice, which was second among forwards with 500-plus minutes of ice time. Nelson was eighth, at 59.0%.
Six days after the Avs sent Nichushkin to Columbus for draft picks, they signed Jaden Schwartz to a three-year, $9.75 million contract. Schwartz, 34, is older and smaller, but two years ago he had 26 goals and 49 points for Seattle.
“It never really crossed my mind,” Schwartz said of replacing Nichushkin. “It’s part of professional sports. There’s going to be turnover. There’s a salary cap. They lost a couple other forwards as well. I’m just focused on this group and myself, and helping out as much as I can.”
Schwartz had 11 goals and 26 points in 50 games last year, including eight goals and 22 points at even strength. Schwartz’s possession metrics were very early in his career, particularly around the time he won the Stanley Cup with the St. Louis Blues in 2019. He’s also had several strong playoff performances, including Seattle’s one foray into the tournament in 20233 (five goals, 10 points in 14 games).
How much of any of that will translate with the Avs? That’s to be determined.
He’s been skating with Nelson and prospect T.J. Hughes in camp.
“Schwartz and Nichushkin are different players, but Schwartz, when he’s healthy, he’s a heck of a player,” Bednar said. “Can we find some chemistry on the second line, third line? Where’s he playing in our top nine? We’re going to use exhibition games. I’ve got some lines and some tentative rosters already laid out for our games.”
There are other ways for the Avs to replace some of Nichushkin’s even-strength production. Nazem Kadri could end up on Nelson’s line. Artturi Lehkonen could score a little more than he did last year. Just having Kadri and Nicolas Roy in the top nine for a full season will help in the aggregate, but whether this group can be as dangerous in a playoff series without Nichushkin will be a question in April.
Penalty kill
It’s possible that Nichushkin will be missed even more on the penalty kill. He was a key part of Colorado’s top-ranked PK last season. Despite his availability issues, the only forward who has logged more total time on the kill over the past four seasons than Nichushkin is Logan O’Connor.
It’s also not just Nichushkin. The Avs also have to replace Jack Drury and Joel Kiviranta.
“Val was a great penalty killer,” Bednar said. “I think we’ve got lots of penalty killers and guys who can play that role. You lose a guy like Drury, too. There’s another big penalty killer. But we have some other guys that have played. (Zachary) L’Heureux penalty killed for Nashville. There’s a few guys I think we can up their role in the penalty kill.”
O’Connor missed a big chunk of last season, so having him back healthy at the start of this year will definitely help. O’Connor, Nelson and Parker Kelly will feature heavily when the Avs are down a man.
L’Heureux took on a big role with Nashville’s kill late last season after the Predators traded Michael McCarron and Cole Smith before the deadline. Artturi Lehkonen, particularly if he’s not on the top power-play unit, is one of the guys who has been a PK regular in the past and could fit as the fifth forward on the depth chart. Nicolas Roy was also depth guy on the PK for Vegas in past years as well.
Power play
One reason for Nichushkin’s drop-off in overall production: His time on the power play evaporated last year. He averaged 2:22 per game with the extra man before Jan. 1 and 1:34 per game after the new year. But it dropped to 1:02 per contest after Kadri arrived.
He had one goal and four points on the power play last season, and just a single assist after Jan. 1. The Avs haven’t done any special teams work during the first three days of camp, but that’s coming this week.
The power play was the biggest issue for most of last season. Will Schwartz factor in at all? Will the Avs start out with MacKinnon, Makar, Kadri, Necas and Landeskog on PP1? Even having the likes of Nichushkin and Lehkonen on PP2 last year didn’t help it become more productive, either.
Trade deadline
There’s one final potential piece of the replacing Nichushkin puzzle — a guy who isn’t on the roster right now. President/general manager Joe Sakic said in July the plan is to try and accumulate cap space throughout the season to have more available at the deadline.
That likely means not carrying the maximum 23 players during the season. It could mean keeping only 21 — 12 forwards, seven defensemen and two goalies.
The number will still fluctuate because of injuries and call-ups, but if the Avs began the season with the 12 forwards who are currently on one-way NHL contracts, they would be projected to have about $6.05 million in cap space at the deadline, .
Even if we assume that number could be a little lower by late February, that would give Sakic and Co. the ability to add an impact forward. Even then, there might be certain parts of Nichushkin’s overall value that will be tough for the Avs to replace.
“Val is a great guy and a good teammate,” Landeskog said. “Somebody that we’ll miss for sure and wish him nothing but the best.”
